October 2nd, 2007, 5:39 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: dobranszkyConcerning the original question, does this even make sense to calibrate local volatility model to American options? I mean the American option is about forward probability distributions, while the local volatility model (as it is from 1994) is only about unconditional probability distributions.I am just impressed by the article of Elie Ayache (2007) Dial 33 for your local cleaner where he criticizes the local volatility model.Both your argument and Ayache's paper employ a very naive and limited concept of local volatility. It seems to me that Ayache, in particular, has set up a straw man, because his idea of local volatility is limited to Dupire's non-parametric model which he then contrasts with stochastic volatility models.I prefer to think of local volatility as a deterministic function of local variables that may be themselves stochastic and are not limited to time and price. Someone told me here some time ago in another thread that dependence of the volatility on stochastic variables is really a stochastic volatility model, not a local volatility model. But I think that is a very misleading idea since even Dupire's model is a stochastic volatility by that criterion (it depends on the stochastic price). To me, the essence of the term "stochastic volatility" is that it centers around specifically stochastic concepts like "volatility of volatility", not merely that it depends on stochastic variables. A local volatility model, on the other hand, is a deterministic function that can be used to calculate the local volatility in a pricing tree or finite difference grid, by projecting not just the volatility function itself, but also the local values of the dependent variables (other than that for which one builds the tree/grid) into the future, whether they are strictly stochastic or not, by substituting their statistical behavior with representative deterministic functions (e.g. some sort of conditional expectation function of time). The end result is that, for given current conditions, derivative pricing can be done with what is a strictly deterministic volatility function of time and the tree variable (e.g. price). The essential difference with Dupire lies not with the stochasticity, but that there is a parametrization that is intended to reflect detectable dynamics and current conditions.Perhaps what I have described could be better known as instantaneous volatility, but even that fails to make the distinction between local determinism and pure stochasticity. The usual distinction between local volatility and stochastic volatility as made by Ayache, is an artificial set-up to my mind. The problems with Dupire's non-parametric model (it's instability, and incompatibility with implied volatility dynamics) has been known for many years and is relevant even to vanilla options. It doesn't even describe the underlying asset price series!! One doesn't need to to bring in exotics to point out its failings. To keep re-hashing these problems and fail to distinguish Dupire's model from locally deterministic models in general seems to me to be a pointless exercise.
Last edited by
Fermion on October 1st, 2007, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.