July 25th, 2007, 3:38 pm
Where the windfall gain comes from: let's say you have sold a one-touch digital that pays $1mm if the asset/rate hits 90% of original level within one year, and you priced and hedged it as a 92% barrier instead of a 90% barrier. Let's say the market is reasonably behaved and delta hedging works. If the market hits 91.9%, then you will have liquidated your hedge right around here and you have the $1mm ready to pay out. If the asset/rate bounces back up and you don't need to pay out the $1mm after all, you have a wnidfall of $1mm (plus interest)!If the thing continues on down and hits 90% then you alerady have the cash to pay out and you are fine. You again may have made a little interest on the $1mm waiting for the market to get past 90%.Using a call spread to price american digitals: It makes a lot of sense to hedge with call spreads or put spreads, and you can use this method to estimate the pricing as well. The connection you need is that an american (meaning one touch) digital is roughly equal to two european digitals. Why? Well if the forward curve is flat, then when the market gets to the barrier level the american digital is worth 100 (by definition) and the european is worth around 50 (probably a bit more if the skew is equity-like). Intuitively, the digital it is at the money, so has even odds of being above/below.So you can roughly pretend that the american digital is 200% of a european digital and then use the call/put spread overhedge method for the european digital, but use twice the number of options.A nice exercise is to use a local vol monte carlo (yes i know it is wrong for barrier options) and simulate the *difference* between a one-touch digital and the call spread or put spread. You get a pretty small stdev of results, indicating a stable hedge.One refinement (and there could be many) would be to calculate the theoretical (unadjusted for reality) prices of the pure european and american digitals, and see what the price ratio looks like (maybe it is 180%, not 200% for example).