QuoteThe problem is that many trader cannot just do something else... in fact they are most of the time useless in term of qualification. I suspect they'd make very bad gamblers as well!P

I really dont think 1000000 investment bankers are going to lose their jobs.

I doubt it too, I imagine it was just an image, 'cause I'm wondering if there are 1M investment bankers in the whole world actually ...The last figure I heard was 40,000 traders ...However, I agree the world would be running at least as well without them as with them !

when I estimate 1mio jobs lost in the investment banking worldwide i don't just mean in M&A and Trading but also in other areas:Compliance, Risk Mgt (which proved to be useless again to avoid the big desaster), Back Office, Front Office (Sales and Traders and structurers), IT (support, developers, project managers, BA). Below a non exhaustive panel of pure players in the IB industry as well as Global banking (which will aslo have to lay off) with the list of current employee numbers:LEH-> 28,500 GS-> 35,000MS->55,000ML->64,000BSC->12,000LAZ->2,000BNP Paribas->138,000Macquarie->12'000CIBC->40,000Wachovia->122,000C-> 330,000HSBC->312,000BAC->200,000JPM->174,000Deutsche bank->75,000UBS->81,000CS->48,000Credit Agricole (caylon)->134,000socgen ->120,000Unicredit->170'000BAR (Barclays)->134,000Royal Bank of Canada->65,000Royal Bank of Scotland -> 141,000WAMU->60,000Fortis -> 56,000Santander ->129,000Commerzbank->33,000Westpac->27,000Now imagine they would lay off 5% you would have 140k jobs less (280k with 10%). Now of course some will lay more, some less. Now add the rest of the banks, the Fund management and insurances and you can figure out that the figure total numbe of jobs that can go withing 1 year could be worldwide in the 7 digit figure

I think your numbers including bank tellers and security guards. JPM does not employ 174,000 in IB neither does CIBC employ 40,000 in IB nor does HSBC emply 312,000 in IB.

QuoteOriginally posted by: tournesolwhen I estimate 1mio jobs lost in the investment banking worldwide i don't just mean in M&A and Trading but also in other areas:Compliance, Risk Mgt (which proved to be useless again to avoid the big desaster), Back Office, Front Office (Sales and Traders and structurers), IT (support, developers, project managers, BA). Below a non exhaustive panel of pure players in the IB industry as well as Global banking (which will aslo have to lay off) with the list of current employee numbers:LEH-> 28,500 GS-> 35,000MS->55,000ML->64,000BSC->12,000LAZ->2,000BNP Paribas->138,000Macquarie->12'000CIBC->40,000Wachovia->122,000C-> 330,000HSBC->312,000BAC->200,000JPM->174,000Deutsche bank->75,000UBS->81,000CS->48,000Credit Agricole (caylon)->134,000socgen ->120,000Unicredit->170'000BAR (Barclays)->134,000Royal Bank of Canada->65,000Royal Bank of Scotland -> 141,000WAMU->60,000Fortis -> 56,000Santander ->129,000Commerzbank->33,000Westpac->27,000Now imagine they would lay off 5% you would have 140k jobs less (280k with 10%). Now of course some will lay more, some less. Now add the rest of the banks, the Fund management and insurances and you can figure out that the figure total numbe of jobs that can go withing 1 year could be worldwide in the 7 digit figure1 miilion is just a number which by itself (as any good statisticain knows) is completely meaningless. The relevant statistic here is the percentage of workers laid off by the banks etc. You allude to 5% which isn't too scary is it? Even 10% just pretty much gets rid of the dead wood.

And the numbers of layoff is growing... 10% was a bit conservative as it appears. Once the UK property market in the UK collapse (which I think is imminent) the UK banks will have to slash jobs like there is no tomorrow... The pound is the next, I think GBP/USD might get below 1.5 in one year from now... Gloomy Gloomy

One thing's for sure. For every gloomy report I hear there is another predicting the exact opposite is going to happen. I read recently where some analyst was predictng a rebound where the DJIA would break through 13,000 by year end. I think both extremes are a little unrealsitic. It's economic fundamentals plus the possibilty of man-made (war, global warming, asset bubbles) or natural (weather, earthquake, pendemic) disasters that drive the markets. It's the old story of jump-diffusion, with drift.

QuoteOriginally posted by: tournesolThe problem is that many trader cannot just do something else... in fact they are most of the time useless in term of qualification.Not necessarily true. Lots of traders are quite good at coding/programming, investment research & strategy, risk management, teaching, even sales and marketing .... It's like saying most doctors cannot just do something else other than their profession .... lots of doctors are multi-talented.

QuoteOriginally posted by: fars1d3sQuoteOriginally posted by: tournesolThe problem is that many trader cannot just do something else... in fact they are most of the time useless in term of qualification.Not necessarily true. Lots of traders are quite good at coding/programming, investment research & strategy, risk management, teaching, even sales and marketing .... It's like saying most doctors cannot just do something else other than their profession .... lots of doctors are multi-talented.Sure, lot's of traders (and doctors) are smart enough. But to start back at the bottom again - especially when you've got used to the trader lifestyle .

I think my estimate of 1Mio jobs lots in the Financial Industry worldwide is looking more and more plausible...