April 2nd, 2008, 12:35 pm
I think we all agree that the time value of money is equivalent to a positive riskless interest rate. Risk free rates are driven by at least two factors: opportunity cost of lending money, and inflation. If you have some money, you might be able to make it grow by investing wisely in the instruments of your choice. It seems facetious to point out that any profit made is dependent on you having the cash to invest. If you lend the money to someone else instead, the profit is unattainable and so money-lenders charge interest. The 'riskless' rate (and hence time value of money) arises as a consequence of 'riskless' borrowers such as the American government. Combine this with the phenomena of inflation: £1 now really does buy you more mars bars than £1 in 10 years time. I think the final cause of inflation is beyond the point of the question?If you cannot reasonably expect to be able to put your cash to profitable use, and expect no signigicant inflation, services such as those provided by retail banks (i.e. keeping your money safe from theft, provision of cashcards, transfer of moneys etc.) would still cost money: the riskless rate should arguably become negative - a rationale that was justified by events in Japan during the late 90's.