November 27th, 2001, 6:10 pm
I agree with the previous answers if you are using the estimated volatility as a signal. But if you actually want to trade on the basis of it, or value something based on theoretical trading, you have to adjust the data to executable prices. It would be a mistake to use a general theoretic technique instead of something tailored to your precise execution potential.To take a simple example, suppose the true underlying price follows a Guassian random walk, but the reported trades randomly add or subtract a fixed bid-ask spread. Most of your short-term volatility will be the difference between the bid and ask prices. Your actual executable price will depend on your trading access to the market, but in no case will it equal your time series. On the other hand, if you are designing a program trading system, you need to know the reporting, computation and execution delays to know what prices are available to you.