January 22nd, 2009, 3:29 am
I am forced to exist side by side with an HJM type model which in the current crazy market environment produces weird/unrealistic risk analytics. Please, give me some advice on how to straighten the model out. I am sure the issues I'll describe are not new and somebody faced them already.My model is very sensitive to the choice of short rate (it's HJM), so given that front end of the curve has been very volatile lately, it's caused problems. Is that a good idea to throw away the front end of the curve completely and start the curve with, say, 1 year maturity? My model is also normal, so lately in this very low rate environment my short rate had tuned negative quite a bit. We bounce short rate off a certain minimal level, but it creates too much noise in the model. Besides, the volatility function in the model depends on the level of rate, so once those rate paths get near zero, they can't get out.Do these issues ring any bell?