My question is: If someone tells you that such a way is possible via trading( stocks, futures, options etc.) and is there even the slightest chance that you would believe them? P.S.I know some rules on exchanges will prohibit extremely large gains/trades even if you are able to "commit" them. But my question is more like putting a small amount such as 10K and expecting a guaranteed profit of 100K within a few days? Would you theoretically believe that such thing is possible(of course without luck). I will explain further, IF I receive serious replies. Thanks.

QuoteOriginally posted by: somedevilMy question is: If someone tells you that such a way is possible via trading( stocks, futures, options etc.) and is there even the slightest chance that you would believe them? I would only believe them if I saw the actual account balance before and after a successful run and had a reasonable explanation on how it works. Free money is a sure sign of a scam. This is an even better investment opportunity than Maddox' hedge fund ?If it were true, why would anyone tell other people about it ?Once someone discovered the chance, they should be trading the opportunity until it disappears.

hhhmmm, your answer is the 'classic' one that assumes all sorts of rationality, efficiency, and many other things about mere humans that are not true. See Results and Ideas: Two classical putdowns.P

QuoteOriginally posted by: somedevilMy question is: If someone tells you that such a way is possible via trading( stocks, futures, options etc.) and is there even the slightest chance that you would believe them? P.S.I know some rules on exchanges will prohibit extremely large gains/trades even if you are able to "commit" them. But my question is more like putting a small amount such as 10K and expecting a guaranteed profit of 100K within a few days? Would you theoretically believe that such thing is possible(of course without luck). I will explain further, IF I receive serious replies. Thanks.A Serious Reply is about to ensue.Yes.In fact, given solely the information in your post, why would I respond any other way than "yes?"

Of course, the probability is non-zero, but the probability would need to exceed a little bit over 10% to get me to risk $10k in exchange for $100k (or $1 in exchange for $10 for that matter). I see 5 reasons that p <<10%1. Empirically speaking, the modest volatility of prices means the probability of earning such returns "in the next few days" is extremely low.2. The ability of someone to gaurantee that they can execute such a trade at some future time conditional on your investment at some future time seems even more remote.3. The incentives for someone to promise such a return and abscond with the investment are rather high.4. Such returns may be impossible depending on the circuitbreakers in the futures markets which might pause or halt trading after extreme movements far below the promised level of return.5. The mathematical inconsistencies of 10,000% return vs. 100k profit on 10k invested would make me suspicious.That said, all the offerer has to do is take your $10k and tell you to accost everyone you meet with a promise to return $100k in exchange for $10k until 10 fools agree.Given all that, my answer would be "no."

QuoteOriginally posted by: Paulhhhmmm, your answer is the 'classic' one that assumes all sorts of rationality, efficiency, and many other things about mere humans that are not true. See Results and Ideas: Two classical putdowns.PPaul, Nice article. You are right - there are many reasons as to why would someone share her/his great ideas (if they are indeed "great"). I was thinking some time ago about why did Thorp disclose the card counting in Blackjack for example( a famous topic on that site even...I see . One of the reasons that come to mind are: He was rich by the time he did that. Speaking of Thorp again btw, this reminds me that in other article he speaks how he wasn't able to prove(mathematically) his option formula, though it seemed to work. Again, thinking about it - if he shared this with the mathematical community - perhaps someone would be able to prove it and hence, more trust to the formula. Now...in my case, I am obviously speaking about arbitrage relationships here ...but before you guys get more excited here - NO I am not 100% convinced in my theories. I am testing actually not one - but 2 models that turn to be...let's just say: "very promising". Still, I already found out that one of my ideas(they were 3) now doesn't work - so my ideas are now 2 and bot not tested with real money. Just theoretically and at the very best - with demo software. By the way, on a side note, I wrote a few posts here back a month ago - I promised back then to try creating a new Neural network algorythm that will perform better than Backprop and GA mutation to predict prices. The news - still working on it . I am honesytly not having time to focus on it entirely - besides today I want to devote some time to test again Backprop and RBF against some stocks and currencies which aren't famous of their efficiency. Ironically or not, I recieved a very good RMSE(...0.2) on EUR/CHF prediction and a bad RMSE(about 2+) on MSFT and S&P. This was all with a non-linear Backprop algorythm using Mathematica 5.2 A few more notes on the NN though...since it's the weekend...I am looking forward to organize my "laptop bibliography", I am posting here all the NN related books I have now on the computer, so perhaps for some folks here to find them useful - perhaps at the same time, to organize my thoughts. To quote Nietzsche(as usually : "Why am I writing? To release my thoughts...". So:Artificial Intelligence and stock market success:www.actuaries.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_ ... cial.pdfAI on Wall Street Introduction:www.inductive.com/AI-MODOP.pdfMeasuring Intra-Daily Market Risk: A Neural Network Approachefmaefm.org/0EFMSYMPOSIUM/Nantes%202009/paper/Fabozzi.pdfPeriodic Solutions in Delayed Neural Networks via the Averaging Method...can't find the link...Does Money Matter? An Artificial Intelligence Approachwww.cs.bham.ac.uk/~pxt/TALKS/us.infl.rates.pdfModelling and Trading the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: Do Neural Networks perform better?www.ljmu.ac.uk/AFE/AFE_docs/cibef0202.pdfFeedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks. and Genetic Programs for Stock Market and. Time Series Forecastingwww.smartquant.com/references/NeuralNetworks/neural1.pdfFinancial Forecasting Using. Neural Network or Machine. Learning Techniquesinnovexpo.itee.uq.edu.au/2001/projects/s804018/thesis.pdfCommodity Futures. Price Prediction,. an Artificial Intelligence Approachwww.ai.uga.edu/IAI/ernest_foster.pdfInput Window Size and Neural Network Predictorshomepages.feis.herts.ac.uk/~nngroup/pubs/papers/frank-ijcnn00.pdfHigher Order Neural Network Group Models for Financial Simulationwww.pcs.cnu.edu/~mzhang/CPSC450_550/BestPaperPresentation/ 2000%20IJNeuralSystems%20NNGroupDataSimulation.docNeural Network Regression and Alternative Forecasting Techniques for Predicting Financial Variableswww.ljmu.ac.uk/AFE/AFE_docs/cibef0401b.pdfNeural Network for Predicting the Performance of Credit Card Accountsdisweb.dis.unimelb.edu.au/staff/gshanks/615644/credrisk-word.pdfNeural network-based prediction of the USD/GBP exchange ratewww.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/03/23/48/nnbp.pdfA Neural Network Approach to Forecasting. Stock Prices of Saudi Companiesdigital.library.ksu.edu.sa/V14M166R1782.pdfArtificial Markets and Intelligent Agents - MIT.educbcl.mit.edu/projects/cbcl/publications/theses/thesis-chan.pdf Applying Artificial Neural Networks to Business, Economics and. Financewww.econ.upenn.edu/Centers/CARESS/CARESSpdf/02-08.pdfUsing neural networks to forecast stock market pricespeople.ok.ubc.ca/rlawrenc/research/Papers/nn.pdfValuing and Hedging American Put Options. Using Neural Networksmoya.bus.miami.edu/~dkelly/papers/options.pdfStock Market Prediction With Neural Networkswww.cs.colostate.edu/~anderson/cs545/class_material/solutions/assignproject/ kazeka.pdfAn Empirical Methodology for Developing Stockmarket Trading Systems using Artificial Neural Networks.http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/vi ... sImproving Investing Strategy in Stock Market with Valuation Technology Clustering and Neural Networkhttp://www.ripublication.com/ijcirv2/ijcirv2n1_4.pdfTraining Neural Networkswww.ee.columbia.edu/~rob/talks/neuralnet.pptNeural Networks for Economic Predictionwww.ralph-abraham.org/articles/MS%23110.Italy2/ms110.rtfHow Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returnsjournal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1138_barunik-359-76_-_opravené.pdfTime Series Prediction with Recurrent Neural. Networks Using a Hybrid PSO-EA Algorithmacil.mst.edu/documents/nCaiIJCNN04.pdfDesigning a neural network for forecasting financial time series - Harvard:www.eecs.harvard.edu/~parkes/cs286r/spr ... .pdfNeural network load forecasting with weather ensemble predictions - Oxford:http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mast0315/Ensembl ... oad.pdfCan the neuro fuzzy model predict stock indexes. better than its rivals - Tokyo University:www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cirje/research/dp/2 ... putational learning techniques for intraday FX trading using popular technical indicatorswww-cfr.jbs.cam.ac.uk/people/cv/ MAHD%20selected%20publications%201980-2006.pdf

Do you accept counterfeit money? If yes then you have 10K from meAnother possibility would be if i were wealthy enough and 10K was just peanuts for me. I mean so wealthy that if i had found 10K while walking on the street, i would let them there, because i perceive it doesnt worth to bent over and pick up such a small amount. For all other cases the answer is no. It sounds too good to be true, such returns are seen only in ponzi schemes (fraud) or lottery (luck).

QuoteOriginally posted by: Paulhhhmmm, your answer is the 'classic' one that assumes all sorts of rationality, efficiency, and many other things about mere humans that are not true. See Results and Ideas: Two classical putdowns.PInteresting point, and it's not that I'm a strong believer in rational actors in an efficient market. But there is some truth to those ideas, and looking at the original context, I stillthink these were the quite relevant out of the many red flags and problems.

Well, yes. If you meet a bloke with a sure thing down the pub then you might think twice! Context is everything!P

This is a weird thread but got me thinking about my limits. Running a diversified high frequency fx portfolio, i could return 200% in 1month with a 70% chance of success. A losing month will be a blow-up. It should be fun for the gambling man but not if the mob is staking you like kimmel did with Thorpe.

QuoteOriginally posted by: PaperCutQuoteOriginally posted by: somedevilMy question is: If someone tells you that such a way is possible via trading( stocks, futures, options etc.) and is there even the slightest chance that you would believe them? P.S.I know some rules on exchanges will prohibit extremely large gains/trades even if you are able to "commit" them. But my question is more like putting a small amount such as 10K and expecting a guaranteed profit of 100K within a few days? Would you theoretically believe that such thing is possible(of course without luck). I will explain further, IF I receive serious replies. Thanks.A Serious Reply is about to ensue.Yes.In fact, given solely the information in your post, why would I respond any other way than "yes?"Indeed. If it's guaranteed, sign me up.btw, investing 10k and getting a profit of 100k would be 1,000% not 10,000% ?

QuoteOriginally posted by: NashequilibriumThis is a weird thread but got me thinking about my limits. Running a diversified high frequency fx portfolio, i could return 200% in 1month with a 70% chance of success. A losing month will be a blow-up. It should be fun for the gambling man but not if the mob is staking you like kimmel did with Thorpe.This honestly made me laugh . But OK - I needed a dose of sense of humor for the weekend...By the way, it's ThorP...no "e" .Also, I must say, I am nicely surprised that all replies so far are everything but not a jest . I was expecting jokes like: "this is a classical example of advanced fee fraud" - not that it's late for such remarks . Now, I am sure most people here are mathematicians and you aren't struggling now to come up with a brilliant mathematical formula, which magically calculates how much 10,000% in times is . I will make your life easier..., telling you the answer: 100 times. Speaking of Thorp(for the 5+ time so far , in his Blackjack counting from what I have read, he was able to double mafia's money in about just a few days. Here...we aren't talking of "quite doubling" .

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisDo you accept counterfeit money? If yes then you have 10K from meAnother possibility would be if i were wealthy enough and 10K was just peanuts for me. I mean so wealthy that if i had found 10K while walking on the street, i would let them there, because i perceive it doesnt worth to bent over and pick up such a small amount. For all other cases the answer is no. It sounds too good to be true, such returns are seen only in ponzi schemes (fraud) or lottery (luck).Anthis, You should consider one thing, called "letter of credit"...or the alternative more "plain English" term - escrow. You can put money in escrow, ask for documentation + demo account demonstrations and once you are sure that everything is legal and works - proceed. The problem is that I am not sure whose financial institution will open such type of escrow . I am sure you won't accept anything but a serious USA/UK bank. Hence, not sure if any bank would agree of such terms. They care only of goods when it comes to letters of credit and they release money upon representation of stated documentation within the letter. This is a little bit embarassing now, because i am not 100% aware of their prectices when it comes to letters of credit - and in all honesty I feel lazy now to google it. But just my 2 cents .

QuoteOriginally posted by: somedevilQuoteOriginally posted by: NashequilibriumThis is a weird thread but got me thinking about my limits. Running a diversified high frequency fx portfolio, i could return 200% in 1month with a 70% chance of success. A losing month will be a blow-up. It should be fun for the gambling man but not if the mob is staking you like kimmel did with Thorpe.This honestly made me laugh . But OK - I needed a dose of sense of humor for the weekend...By the way, it's ThorP...no "e" .Also, I must say, I am nicely surprised that all replies so far are everything but not a jest . I was expecting jokes like: "this is a classical example of advanced fee fraud" - not that it's late for such remarks . Now, I am sure most people here are mathematicians and you aren't struggling now to come up with a brilliant mathematical formula, which magically calculates how much 10,000% in times is . I will make your life easier..., telling you the answer: 100 times. Speaking of Thorp(for the 5+ time so far , in his Blackjack counting from what I have read, he was able to double mafia's money in about just a few days. Here...we aren't talking of "quite doubling" .Yes this is all "tongue in cheek", thanks for the spell check, Thorp would be very gracious!

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaOf course, the probability is non-zero, but the probability would need to exceed a little bit over 10% to get me to risk $10k in exchange for $100k (or $1 in exchange for $10 for that matter). I see 5 reasons that p <<10%1. Empirically speaking, the modest volatility of prices means the probability of earning such returns "in the next few days" is extremely low.2. The ability of someone to gaurantee that they can execute such a trade at some future time conditional on your investment at some future time seems even more remote.3. The incentives for someone to promise such a return and abscond with the investment are rather high.4. Such returns may be impossible depending on the circuitbreakers in the futures markets which might pause or halt trading after extreme movements far below the promised level of return.5. The mathematical inconsistencies of 10,000% return vs. 100k profit on 10k invested would make me suspicious.That said, all the offerer has to do is take your $10k and tell you to accost everyone you meet with a promise to return $100k in exchange for $10k until 10 fools agree.Given all that, my answer would be "no."Traden4Alpha, You are write about the futures. CME, Nymex/Globex(+ many others) will start deciplinary actions against you if you trade above certain limits. The things is that such limits are about hundreds of millions in several deals. It's called( as you know, I presume): Speculative limit violation.In my case though, assuming that you start with 10K and turning it into 1M - this won't bother the board of directors. It won't even if you start with 100K and turn it into 10M within a week or 2. De facto, given the tremendous amount of traded on certain markets, making a few millions is the least of their problems. Here is one even humorous example with Forex. Let's assume(a VERY rough) estimation that the current value of Forex is 1.9$T. Then, if you make 1M from this amount, you are just one in a million (since 1000000 is 1/100000 from 1000000000000).Of course, if you are that successful( in terms of %), someone is going to notice you. I am sure about that . You can avoid the nasty brokers though. Here is a guide to become a dealer:http://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/bdguide.htmBut even then the higher instances would notice you. There is no way to avoid this. But there should be a way to "play lucky" and slow down your winnings once your money grow.