QuoteOriginally posted by: DMoney<br1) The Lehman paper proposes that the 'XCCY swap of default free overnight rates' should trade flat. Is this nessecarily true ? Can't there be a liquidity spread between 'default free' USD O/N and EUR O/N ?2) Given that it IS true that a 'XCCY swap of default free overnight rates' trades flat, then it implies that You can price a 'USD 3m' vs 'EUR 3m' ccy basis swap by a) forward estimating and discounting the USD leg with the USD-SWAP curve(since the float legs of the instruments in the USD swap curve rolls on 3m) b) pricing the EUR leg by discounting with EUR-SWAP and forward estimating with a 'pure' 'EUR-3m' forward curve(built from EUR-SWAP curve and, EUR 3m-6m basis quotes). These curves will be calibrated such that the 'EUR 6m' vs 'EUR 3m' basis swap prices back to the market. The legs of the EUR basis swap are priced such that: * A 'EUR-6m' FRN prices to par, discounting and forward estimating with EUR-SWAP (since the float legs of the instruments in the EUR swap curve rolls on 6m) * A 'EUR-3m' FRN prices OFF par, discounting with EUR-SWAP and forward estimating with 'EUR-3m Will the 'USD 3m' vs 'EUR 3m' ccy basis swap in (2) price back to the market quoted x currency basis spread though ? ( I don't have access to market data so can't try it out for myself) The Lehman paper dates from a good few years ago.For more up to date info, see here:
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0903f.pdf (BIS: The US Dollar shortage in global banking, Mar 2009)
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0803h.pdf (BIS: The spillover of money market turbulence to FX swap and cross-currency swap markets, Mar 2008)To answer your questions:1) To get the xxcy adjusted spread between USDOIS and EUROIS, ask someone for quotes on USD OIS vs EUR 3M, USD 3M vs EUR 3M and EUR OIS vs EUR 3M. These are all available at least 5 years out with reasonably tight spreads, and when you put them together, see what you get. You should see EUR OIS significantly above USD OIS.2) Following on from this, USD3M is swapping to EUR3M minus 20 or 30 at least partly because USD are in demand, not just because of differences in the panel compositions between BBA USD LIBOR and EURIBOR. You can't derive xccy basis swap rates from other market variables, there is a supply and demand aspect to the basis swap spread.