P.S.You get "C" for using the word "skewness".Now go learn the word "kurtosis" and come back later... I guess I was right now... - you have to be an idiot to succeed in these forums! HOPEFULLY I will be banned again, I have downloaded all the articles by Thorp and Ziemba...so I won't lose that much if they ban me again .

I would never invest a penny in a hedge fund led by a student claiming to have a very profitable and risk free trading strategy.

LOL

QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexP.S.You get "C" for using the word "skewness".Now go learn the word "kurtosis" and come back later... I guess I was right now... - you have to be an idiot to succeed in these forums! HOPEFULLY I will be banned again, I have downloaded all the articles by Thorp and Ziemba...so I won't lose that much if they ban me again .I am sure nobody wants to have you banned. It would serve your cause better if1. you used few emoticons2. learn to take a few jabs on the chin without getting defensive3. stop thinking that just because you are at Princeton you are god's gift to these forums4. stop making irrelevant quotes just to show how widely read you are 5. stop thinking that everyone here is stupid6. keep in mind that there are a lot of highly experienced people here who can help by being critical - many peopl ehave made many mistakes and can share that wisdom with you.On the other hand, you can choose to continue you r current behaviour and you will find that you will be ignored. On the other hand, you might choose not to post here anymore. Nobody is under any pressure to contribute. a word to the wise is often better than a handjob in the bush.

10k for a strategy is completely irrelevant.Just for your record, a couple of years, a asset manager was very interested by an academic study on future trading using statistical arbitrage. The set up a fund, managed to raise a couple of millions, and start running the strategy.After 6 months, everyone was disappointed :The strategy results were clearly showing profitsBUT the fund nav was generating losses.The fact was that the considering the quantity of trades, the size of the deals and the overrall cost of order, including all the legal and management fees, the profit generated by the strategy was not sufficient to paid the cost.that's exactly what reflects trade4alpha quote :"It often happens that a player carries out a deep and complicated calculation, but fails to spot something elementary right at the first move." -- grandmaster Alexander Kotov Working on the market required money. And not only to invest, but to fund strategy, to pay counterparties, auditors, system, quants, brokers, sales, etc,et....It is you right to offer a strategy and strongly believe in your strategy.But in this business you cannot forget :- Due Dilligence, no one today will waste money just because the believe you- Legal Aspect, financial services are regulated heavily and differently according the country- "Reality check", even if you think your model is the silver bullet, just remember that it doesn't exists.- Cut your loss, you are not likely prepared to loss money, making you your worst enemy.A strategy is good if it works using real market condition, by realistic people.

QuoteOriginally posted by: GamalI would never invest a penny in a hedge fund led by a student claiming to have a very profitable and risk free trading strategy.So what? I will never buy a Japanese newspaper since I don't know Japanese...I am saying this because what you just said is totally irrelevant to the topic. Have you and a few others seen the title??? It's called "any ideas on how to"...and NOT "I want to start a hedge fund, please wilmott members - send me the money". It's not my fault that some cheap scammers write me "I will invest, send me PM but be prepared to tell me your strategy, cos' no one likes blackboxes"- similar quotes... .P.S.The moderator is stupid! Now ban me!

QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalI would never invest a penny in a hedge fund led by a student claiming to have a very profitable and risk free trading strategy.So what? I will never buy a Japanese newspaper since I don't know Japanese...I am saying this because what you just said is totally irrelevant to the topic. Have you and a few others seen the title??? It's called "any ideas on how to"...and NOT "I want to start a hedge fund, please wilmott members - send me the money". It's not my fault that some cheap scammers write me "I will invest, send me PM but be prepared to tell me your strategy, cos' no one likes blackboxes"- similar quotes... .P.S.The moderator is stupid! Now ban me!It's so much fun to have "rexlex" here. Please, moderator, don't ban him/her.

Although you can call it "execution risk" it seems much more serious than that because it includes the hypothesis that the observed profit pattern is either inaccessible, is an artifact of the system generation process, or is a transient phenomenon. You mention that a given strategy will have a limited capacity -- that the arbitrageur's own trades compete with the arbitrageur. But what is that capacity? How does one know that a profit-making system isn't limited to only $10,000/year?The Merton Miller issue isn't limited to technical analysis (the prediction of future prices from historical price data). EMH invalidates both technical analysis and fundamental analysis (the prediction of future prices from public economic/financial data). I don't know what data you use as an input to your prediction process (and you don't need to tell me) but if it's public, then Miller's comments apply to your system and that other "lucky" trader. Whether Miller is right is another issue entirely.As for the car fatality data: Buffett probably does face a 1-in-a-million chance of death from driving (especially given his age because older people have both higher accident rates and higher fatality rates conditional on having an accident). That fact illustrates the biased risk assessment innate to human nature -- Buffett won't pick up that revolver, but he does drive his car.P.S. Were I you, I would take DaveAngel's and Alkmene's advice. Your behavior to date does not serve you well because it is indistinguishable from that of a scammer or an over-confident neophyte. If you do not trust and respect your prospective investors, then your prospective investors will NOT trust and respect you.

QuoteOriginally posted by: mayl2QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalI would never invest a penny in a hedge fund led by a student claiming to have a very profitable and risk free trading strategy.So what? I will never buy a Japanese newspaper since I don't know Japanese...I am saying this because what you just said is totally irrelevant to the topic. Have you and a few others seen the title??? It's called "any ideas on how to"...and NOT "I want to start a hedge fund, please wilmott members - send me the money". It's not my fault that some cheap scammers write me "I will invest, send me PM but be prepared to tell me your strategy, cos' no one likes blackboxes"- similar quotes... .P.S.The moderator is stupid! Now ban me!It's so much fun to have "rexlex" here. Please, moderator, don't ban him/her.What an imbecile....

QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexQuoteOriginally posted by: mayl2QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexQuoteOriginally posted by: GamalI would never invest a penny in a hedge fund led by a student claiming to have a very profitable and risk free trading strategy.So what? I will never buy a Japanese newspaper since I don't know Japanese...I am saying this because what you just said is totally irrelevant to the topic. Have you and a few others seen the title??? It's called "any ideas on how to"...and NOT "I want to start a hedge fund, please wilmott members - send me the money". It's not my fault that some cheap scammers write me "I will invest, send me PM but be prepared to tell me your strategy, cos' no one likes blackboxes"- similar quotes... .P.S.The moderator is stupid! Now ban me!It's so much fun to have "rexlex" here. Please, moderator, don't ban him/her.What an imbecile....You called me an "idiot" yesterday. Now you are calling me an "imbecile". Thank you very much. I feel encouraged.

There is a lot of wisdom in the replies that several members herehave made to your post. Unfortunately some things cannot be taught.You will have to experience them for yourself.The best thing for you would be to implement the strategy withyour own money first. The lessons learned will be invaluable.

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaAlthough you can call it "execution risk" it seems much more serious than that because it includes the hypothesis that the observed profit pattern is either inaccessible, is an artifact of the system generation process, or is a transient phenomenon. You mention that a given strategy will have a limited capacity -- that the arbitrageur's own trades compete with the arbitrageur. But what is that capacity? How does one know that a profit-making system isn't limited to only $10,000/year?The Merton Miller issue isn't limited to technical analysis (the prediction of future prices from historical price data). EMH invalidates both technical analysis and fundamental analysis (the prediction of future prices from public economic/financial data). I don't know what data you use as an input to your prediction process (and you don't need to tell me) but if it's public, then Miller's comments apply to your system and that other "lucky" trader. Whether Miller is right is another issue entirely.As for the car fatality data: Buffett probably does face a 1-in-a-million chance of death from driving (especially given his age because older people have both higher accident rates and higher fatality rates conditional on having an accident). That fact illustrates the biased risk assessment innate to human nature -- Buffett won't pick up that revolver, but he does drive his car.P.S. Were I you, I would take DaveAngel's and Alkmene's advice. Your behavior to date does not serve you well because it is indistinguishable from that of a scammer or an over-confident neophyte. If you do not trust and respect your prospective investors, then your prospective investors will NOT trust and respect you.The trading volume is the best approximator so that you know what amount of money would affect the arbitrage. Yes, it changes too - but note that even if you lose the money because the oppurtunity vanishes - it will be a tiny part..again your incomes so far would compensate it by a light year...again: probability .I know that EMH rejects both fundamental and technical - but just see the movie...it was particularly in the context of technical analysis. As to Buffett - I have no idea since I don't have any data about such events, but yeah - obviously older people face higher probabilities of such accidents.And...DaveAngel's critic wasn't that constructive . After all, I am not quoting that often because I want to show how much I know...if I wanted that, I would post software source codes and mathematical formulas in most of the posts - but I don't do that. Besides, what he says about Princeton and the other things - is just his opinion whose I doubt he can prove...yes he can mention that I am giving links to Princeton...but so what - I once posted entire topic about an article from Harvard(where I don't study of coourse) and I even was critized that not everything hosted on Harvard is true. It was in my previous account "somedevil"...you can find the specific topic by searching for... "black-scholes" "crash" - or something like that . Anyway...

QuoteOriginally posted by: malerThere is a lot of wisdom in the replies that several members herehave made to your post. Unfortunately some things cannot be taught.You will have to experience them for yourself.The best thing for you would be to implement the strategy withyour own money first. The lessons learned will be invaluable.Well....thnx. P.S.See, Mayl(e-mail) and Alkmene: I usually reply as it has to be to normal people...I know - hard to believe .

QuoteOriginally posted by: rexlexP.S.See, Mayl(e-mail) and Alkmene: I usually reply as it has to be to normal people...I know - hard to believe .Me too. But I sometimes also reply to abnormal people, either out of politeness or just want to have a bit of fun.

rexlex, seasoned investors are professional skeptics--they see it as their strongest asset. When you go shopping for the dough, they WILL challenge you; they'll even intentionally throw a few barbs at you just to see how you maintain your composure.Anyone who's easily rattled by criticism won't raise enough for a cup of coffee. A little more work on the cool, mon ami, you'll ramp up your odds.