July 23rd, 2009, 10:04 am
One bit of math finance is to look at a portfolio where you made the correct decision in every possible trade. Such trading strategies typically make 10-20% per day.Life is like that.I turned down an MS job which would have made me millions, part of my logic was that MS share price could not continue rising at past rates.I was wrong.If you let this shit take over your thought processes you enter a self destructive spiral, and you might as well die or become a creationist.So yet again, I will take the line of using finance techniques to guide your career decisions, even if the decision is to leave finance.Start with finding a cap to your misery. You're employed, and at a firm that many admire, and hate is also a kind of respect.As I said when you first asked, I said that hardcore C++ at MS worth real money to Banks, and there is an OK market in C# (but not VB.NET).So the short term local goal is to get yourself doing as much C++ as possible.also it would not hurt to phone the people you turned down, see if the options are still open, or if they have something for you. Unpleasant to do, and not a great chance of success but you'd be a fool not to try.You also ought to look at education. You could do the CQF whilst still working, but I'd also point out that MFE programmes are signalling to me that applications are down significantly, so your chances of getting to a good one are about as high as they ever will be.There exist quant-like roles at MS though, and again it would not hurt to see if you could get to them.I don't mean the insides of Excel, but analysing the vast amount of data their Internet operations get from their sites which need turning into actionable knowledge.But do your job well.Don't fall into the hole of thinking that you are too good for your job. That may start off being true, but the idea soon makes it untrue.MS is not a golden land of opportunity, but it's easily better than most other employers in the economy as a whole in terms of giving you a chance to do cool and/or lucrative stuff.Even if I'm wrong about this, it does not matter, remember model neutrality ?Whatever your model of the opportunities at MS, they are the ones you have, and you have to exploit them to the limit, else 5 years from now you'll be burned out andf no only unemployed but also unemployable.I guess you've not done any survival training ?The big lesson is not which woodland animals you can eat, or how to make wet leaves burn, but the discipline of knowing deep in yourself that it is you that is responsible for the outcome, and that if you give up you are lost. You can see a rock, or you can lift it and eat the woodlice you find there (taste a bit like prawns). You see no edible fauna ? Fine, go lift another rock, there is no option to save the game and go bank and do it differently next time.