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mirage007
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Joined: March 17th, 2008, 3:45 pm

Interest Rate & Foreign Exchange Relationship

September 2nd, 2009, 7:18 pm

Many funds have been trying to make money on the carry trade in the past, in particular with JPY as the borrowing currency. Now it's been a status quo for a while that Japan's interest rates have been at rock bottom, largely because it's economy has been stagnant as well. But what if in the unlikely event of things, its situation started to dramatically improve along with other major economies? There is a positive relationship with economic growth and eventual increases in interest rates, and correspondingly appreciation of the currency.So here's my question. When the carry trade died last year, everyone bought back the JPY, this boosted its currency. However, if things were to improve in japan dramatically, which force do you guys think will dominate the exchange rate? The inflow of capital due to improving economic condition or outflow of capital due to the carry trade?If the problem seems still not well defined, perhaps an intermediary question would be, if in general there is a global recovery, who would rates their rates more aggressively? in the event the belief is that japan's rates stays fairly flat or lower than others, we get into our above scenario.