October 13th, 2009, 8:43 am
Nico, Thanks for the website, I have managed to simulate the G2++ model.Church, your advice was spot on! Thanks a lot. About the tree building, I did that previously for a single factor and was merely asking for any similarities regarding the initial fit for monte carlo. Nevertheless, I did exactly what you described and I presume I was successful. The next challenge is to calibrate this model. I am currently calibrating to caplet vols. So what I do is as follow: I take the market price (Black vol) and determine its price with standard Black Caplet formulae. Next I price the same caplet in my Two-Factor G2++ model. In order to do this I make further use of the T-forward measure (section 4.2.4, Brigo). Remembering that we have 5 parameters ( a, b, sigma, eta and rho) I use solver in excel to adjust these parameters until my model fits the market price. For interest sake, Excel calls my Matlab script repeatedly during this "solving" and each time adjusts the parameter values.Solver succeeds by matching my model price to the market price with an extremely minute error; something like 0.0000000256 plus/minus. This looks great! However, the real test is then to price a different caplet with these "new" parameter values. To explain this, assume we calibrated to a 12mX15m caplet (i.e. a 1-year caplet paying at 1.25 years, tenor=3month) and we obtain this amazingly close model price. Next we take a 15mX18m caplet (i.e. a 1.25year caplet paying at 1.5years, same tenor) and obtain a model price, using these new parameter values.The result is hopeless. The prices aren't even remotely close.I am considering some ways around this. My first and most recent proposition is as follow: I obtain 5 different (different maturities) market prices for caplets. Next i obtain model prices for these specific caplets. I use the same set of parameters for each one of these model prices. I then solve to minimize the squared sums of differences between market and model prices, by adjusting this common set of parameters. The result is more appealing. I am sure Profs. Hull & White would be rather nauseous after reading this , but unfortunately help is scares, especially for a MSc student like myself. As always, I appreciate any criticism.