October 15th, 2009, 3:10 pm
I'm not an expert so only the most basic advice . You need to compile as much information on the characteristics of your data, is it vaguely normal, lognormal, completely, skewed ? , kustosis heavy. Is is highly irregular with regards to arrival of data ?. Any lagged relationships ? (check for cointegrated system) . You can use things like detrended fluctuation analysis (non stationary data) , hurst exponent (stationary), to see if your data is trend following or mean reverting. Once you know your data set it will become alot clearer and possibly a specific filter / method will (hopefully) suggest itself.