January 7th, 2010, 12:19 am
What exactly do you mean? Do you want to make a model that incorporates tail risk to match the implied volatility curve? Or do you think that tail risk isn't being priced into options correctly and you have enough faith on a model you could create to take bets on your model?Either way "tail Risk" would be using a finding a distribution with fatter tails than the normal distribution which will increase the prices of the options. Or to create a stochastic volatility model or local vol model or heston model (all make the tails fatter). You can also look at using structural models to create fatter tails. Ie a model that looks at asset volatility...as equity decrease volatility in assets will have a larger impact on equity volatility -> creating fatter tails. Oh also fat tails can be created using poison processes, they have been added to to bs models.
Last edited by
phubaba on January 6th, 2010, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.