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Trickster
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 10th, 2010, 3:27 pm

Brought over from a discussion about Paul and Beer in General...a small scatterplot on nonlinear economics:Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Theory in Economics: A historical perspectiveThis is a student paper, but nice coverage and list of references."The term paper focuses on the genesis of ideas of nonlinearity, stochasticity, and dynamics in economic thought as a series of intellectual advances that connected the linear static (quasi-dynamical) determinism of the 18th-19th centuries with the linear mechanistic systems with stochastic terms and the nonlinear deterministic and stochastic dynamical models of the late 20th century, specifically, the chaos theory. The emphasis is placed on the developments of the second half of the 20th century."***The Master Equation Approach to Nonlinear EconomicsArticle provided by Springer in its Journal of Evolutionary Economics.Volume (Year): 2 (1992)Issue (Month): 3 (October)Pages: 233-65"A concept for modelling nonlinear economic dynamics is presented and exemplified by a concrete model. Generally, a configuration of macroeconomic variables is considered whose probabilistic evolution is coupled to the decision-making of agents and is described by a master equation. The transition rates in the master equation are modelled in terms of utility measures of the agents. Non-linear dynamic meanvalue equations can be derived from the master equation. The concrete model describes firms producing substitutable durable commodities. They compete with respect to the quality of their products, and a positive feedback between quality enhancement and customer's reaction to quality is assumed. The case of two competing firms is treated explicitly. It is shown that beyond a critical value of a "competitivity parameter" a homogenous market will develop into an inhomogenous one with a winner and a loser firm."***Beyond Schumpeter: Nonlinear economics and the evolution of the U.S. innovation system "AbstractTo the extent that the U.S. has a national innovation system (actually systems), it is in the midst of a dramatic transformation. Essentially, international competition and internal political machinations are causing a shift away from a Schumpeterian system of entrepreneurial capitalism toward a more mercantilistic system. Industrial structures and government policies alike are beginning to mirror their global counterparts. Meanwhile, strategic analyses, both at the level of the firm and the nation state, remain mired in the methods of the past industrial epoch. This conceptual overview contends that the emerging science of nonlinear or advanced systems (chaos and complexity theories) provides a useful addendum to Schumpeter's perspectives. Moreover, tools and strategies derived from nonlinear or advanced systems are better suited to both understanding and managing this transformation."Journal of Socio-EconomicsVolume 27, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 97-115
Last edited by Trickster on February 11th, 2010, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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GreekMartingale
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 11th, 2010, 12:18 am

I have some experience with economics and considerable with financial economics. I have been really fed up with this over-mathematization of economics. Too much form, without substance. I am really averse to this new strain of economic thinking, which merely changes the math that we use. Or we are getting from equilibrium to disequlibrium and chaos and all that stuff.Where are the institutions, the policy environment, the very people who operate in this complex system? I have to admit that economic historians and political economists produce much finer economic thinking than mainstream economists. Or at least the profession used to produce economists like Hayek and now produces endless papers quarreling about pecking order theory of capital structure.
 
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Trickster
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 11th, 2010, 1:32 am

That's fine, but if you have a sense of humor about it all, look at the sometimes useful and sometimes hilarious things that you can find on the Internet! As I was looking for something serious about economics in order to answer one of your questions, I stumbled across this. Very pleased with it. Harvesting the Seeds for a New World Order"...Alan Greenspan has just been appointed to his last term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Saturn transited his Ascendant for the second and last time during June of 2004....Let's take a look at the origin and development of events leading to today's crises in confidence and the reforms of Sarbanes-Oxley."...CHART #1: KEY DATESCHART #2: KEY PLAYERSCHART #3: ONLINE BIOGRAPHIES OF KEY PLAYERSCHART #4: ASTROLOGY CHARTS OF KEY PLAYERS WEBPAGE: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE and charts of related events ...CHART #8: BREAKDOWN OF SATURN/PLUTO ASPECTS BY DATE WITH DETAILS PROVIDEDCHART #9: TIMELINE WITH EVENTS KEYED TO ASTROLOGICAL SIGNS THAT SATURN AND PLUTO TRANSITEDCHART #10: TELECOM EVENTS TIMELINEAstrological Charts are provided for:- The "birth" of the New York Stock Exchange- Alan Greenspan- Bernard Ebbers, WorldCom- Robert Rubin, Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999); Assistant to Sanford Weill (1999-present)
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GreekMartingale
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 11th, 2010, 9:37 am

LOL, i am aware of an astrological table of my hometown showing that its desperate situation is due to its astrological attributes and day of birth.
 
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Trickster
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 12th, 2010, 3:55 pm

Also brought over from the Paul...Beer thread:...we could also consider beer that costs more than a dollar.Is it worth it? Who says so? How does the company decide how much more than a dollar they can charge before they start losing market share?These are important, not to say urgent, questions...For a beer made in the US, I like Sam Adams and look what I just found:Sam Adams Utopias"...Samuel Adam's Utopias – world's most expensive beer* which costs around $100 per bottle (24 oz) or about $65 per pint, sold in copper bottles resembling the copper brewing kettles, named after one of the founding fathers of the USA. It is strongest beer in the world, the alcohol content is 25%. The process of making this beverage can take up to 12 years, giving it the unique and rich flavors. The production of Sam Adams Utopias is limited to 8,000 bottles per year."* I cannot vouch for certain that this really is the world's most expensive beer. Perhaps we have some beer experts lurking out there...or we could also discuss wine, scotch, champagne... PS: I know that some of you may be howling with laughter at the very idea of a good beer made in the US, but let's leave petty national prejudices aside, for the sake of intelligent conversation.
 
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Trickster
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 12th, 2010, 3:55 pm

And this:We could also discuss the relative merits of these: "If one Cohiba Behike costs $440, what do 40 Cohiba Behikes cost?"The Cohiba Behike"It's the world's most expensive cigar - $ 440 each and it only comes in boxes of 40 - but is it the best? Nobody knows because no one has smoked one. The Cuban havanas from the Cohiba brand are so precious that no one has actually lit one yet. Although the blend was tested by a group of tasters before the cigar went into hand-made production, according to the "torcedora" or cigar-roller from the El Laguito factory in Havana, Norma Fernandez. The cigar was launched in Spain on Thursday by Altadis, the exclusive importer of Cuban cigars into Spain. When they say "hand-made", they mean it. In this case there were only two hands involved and they both belong to Norma - she rolled all 4,000 cigars in the strictly limited edition - a labour of love. "I've been doing this for 39 years but I still love it," said Norma who admits to smoking cigarettes and the odd Cohiba panatella and was selected from the senior rollers for this special task.Norma also had the honour of deciding on the tobacco blend to be used which was designed to honour 40 years of the Cohiba brand, being true to the house style but giving this cigar a special touch. "But I'm not going to reveal the formula," she said.The Cohiba "Behike", named after a tribal chief of Cuba's indigenous Taino tribe, can only be bought in special humidors - ,860 for the 40 cigars. A lot of money but maybe not for someone who can appreciate this delicate blend of the world's most selected tobacco leaves. Either way, just like the cheapest old stogie, it'll be up in smoke."***This review was from October 2006, so probably a few people have tasted the Cohiba Behike by now. I would prefer a $440 glass of cognac myself, but I know that some men like an occasional cigar.
 
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Trickster
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Nonlinear Economics and Other Strange Beasts

February 12th, 2010, 4:11 pm

Now a little detail on Economics de Luxe:Veblen GoodsIn economics, Veblen goods are a group of commodities for which peoples' preference for buying them increases as a direct function of their price, as greater price confers greater status, instead of decreasing according to the law of demand.Some types of high-status goods, such as high-end wines, designer handbags and luxury cars, are Veblen goods, in that decreasing their prices decreases people's preference for buying them because they are no longer perceived as exclusive or high status products. Similarly, a price increase may increase that high status and perception of exclusivity, thereby making the good even more preferable. The Veblen effect is named after the economist Thorstein Veblen, who first pointed out the concepts of conspicuous consumption and status-seeking.The Veblen effect is one of a family of theoretically possible anomalies in the general theory of demand in microeconomics. Other related effects include:the snob effect: preference for goods because they are different from those commonly preferred; in other words, for consumers who want to use exclusive products, price is quality;the bandwagon effect: preference for a good increases as the number of people buying them increases (see network externality); These effects are discussed in a classic article by Leibenstein (1950). The concept of the counter-Veblen effect is less well known, although it logically completes the family.None of these effects in itself predicts what will happen to actual quantity of goods demanded (the number of units purchased) as prices change—they refer only to preferences or propensities to purchase. The actual effect on quantity demanded will depend on the range of other goods available, their prices, and their substitutabilities for the goods concerned. The effects are anomalies within demand theory because the theory normally assumes that preferences are independent of price or the number of units being sold. They are therefore collectively referred to as interaction effects.The interaction effects are a different kind of anomaly from that posed by Giffen goods. The Giffen goods theory is one for which observed demand rises as price rises, but the effect arises without any interaction between price and preference—it results from the interplay of the income effect and the substitution effect of a change in price.Recent research has begun to examine the empirical evidence for the existence of goods which show these interaction effects. The Yale Law Journal has published a broad overview. Studies have also found evidence suggesting people receive more pleasure from more expensive goods.***A little more, a little later, at a very high price. Stradivarius violin
Last edited by Trickster on February 11th, 2010, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.