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longvega
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Joined: September 19th, 2003, 7:17 am

Positive sovereign basis trade

March 16th, 2010, 8:52 pm

Hi,Is it possible for someone to express a view on the positive sovereign basis e.g. 5y Spain trades at +30bp on ASW and +90bp on CDS. In theory one could sell CDS and short the bond - selling CDS is easy but can one really short the bond for 5y? If not, it is possible to truly monetize the basis without taking any rollover risk on the repo?Thanks!
 
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freddiemac
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Joined: July 17th, 2006, 8:29 am

Positive sovereign basis trade

March 24th, 2010, 8:29 pm

No expert but I guess short positions in futures market is way (if futures are available, Italy has them but not sure if Spain does). When shorting a bond in the cash market you receive the bond in repo against cash and then you sell the bond only buy it back later when the repo matures. Why would someone refuse to lend their bonds against cash? I understand that investors might be hesitant to lend cash against bonds assuming that the credit quality of the bond might deteriorate. But why would investors refuse to lend out their bonds (I am asking, I dont know). This has happened in eg the US but for spanish bonds it does not seem like a big risk. But I guess there still is a roll over risk eg if your own credit worsens or people hoard bonds... HTH