October 13th, 2010, 2:50 pm
Risking being too practical about it:(a) if you have no clue how the asset price could develop, your "replication strategy" will be a huge bet with uncertain outcomes (i.e. start-up company with no correlation to anything)(b) if you have reasonable idea of how asset price could develop, your "replication strategy" will be a bet with hopefully some certainty of possible outcomes (i.e. stable historical vol, but no listed options)(c) if the underlying asset is systematically linked (i.e. correlated) with other assets that have tradable options, good chance of dynamic replication, risking breakdown of correlation assumption (i.e. quanto options, basket options etc)Of course your replication will always be model dependent, so the further away your assumptions are from reality (even unknowingly), the worse your performance is going to be, in hindsight.