Hello . I"m trying to get an estimate for intraday hitting probability of an asset in some level . My question regards some fundamental assumptions about log normal distribution of return on intraday scale ( e.g 15 minutes , hours ) - so if i wanna do some simulation about an intraday trading results ( like in Monte Carlo ) with time resolution of 15 minutes interval for example , how should i treat the drift and volatility parameters assuming some approximation of Brownian Motion ? I know I"m entering some high frequency modelling - world so things are not as accurate - but i need some ("good") estimation for the hit probabilities i"m after .Thanks a lot ! Tom

how would you use the intraday hitting probability?

Hi . I only need an estimate for some application .It need not be accurate to the point .Do you know of some papers / reference that deals with such issues ? Tom

Cant you apply the square root of time rule?

QuoteOriginally posted by: tomericoHi . I only need an estimate for some application .It need not be accurate to the point .Do you know of some papers / reference that deals with such issues ? Tomwhat application will you use for?Be careful about GM's assumption.