I'm considering a job as a software engineer at a quant hedge fund. I am graduating with a Ph.D. in computer science. The salary is about average compared to other offers I have from more traditional tech companies but the performance bonus is a wildcard. The "minimum guaranteed" bonus is nothing to get excited about, but I'm wondering what is more typical, close to the minimum or something much higher? Assuming of course they like me and I do a good job.

I don't have specific experience with this from hedge funds, which are likely to be more idiosynchratic in their compensation behavior than large organizations, but in my experience a hard guarantee does not usually leave much room for upside. At any rate, you should not make a major career decision based on first year comp out of school. Try to ask what you can expect to be paid in 2-3 years' time if you do a good job and the fund performs well. You may not want to take the answer at face value (it is likely to be slightly optimistic), but it should give you a sense of the order of magnitude of potential bonuses. More importantly, do you want to work in a hedge fund or in a more traditional tech company?

Also consider whether you want a job or a career. Quant hedge fund is a job.