June 14th, 2011, 6:07 pm
Yet, 20$ (or more, today) is way too wide (even with the "so called" fundamental reasons). Looking at the WTI-LLS spread you can see that it has been quite stable recently, however, the LLS-Brent spread has been the trigger for the collapse of the WTI-Brent spread. I don't see this arb sustain for long (or at least a limited downside of the spread). Nonetheless, trading this spread with the outright futures is too risky (I believe that part of the overshoot of the spread is due to stop-losses/margin calls of speculative accounts), so maybe a Call on the spread option is better given the current price action (a 3-month put is currently priced at 2.8% mid-market)