October 18th, 2011, 8:31 am
It looks to me like monolithic financial institutions are going to less profitable in the future, i.e. megabanks. There are two drivers for this, firstly regulation will explicitly prevent a single bank from operating retail, investment and trading divisions. Secondly governments have woken up to the danger of banks being financial hubs around which the spokes of saving, debt and money-creation all revolve. So I dont think that it will be allowed to continue in its current form (which is quite right IMO).This will mean banks breaking up by selling off or partitioning investment and trading operations from retail. Regulations may also mean that it is easier for trading and speculation to occur in prop. shops and hedge funds than in large financial institutions. This will however decrease the profitability of these operations and the banks themselves, since it will no longer be possible to punt with deposit money and there will be a loss of efficiency due to economies of scale. So the financial landscape may start to resemble itself in years past, before the repeal of Glass Steagall and before the 'Big Bang' in the city of London.What would this mean?- More smaller firms- Smaller bonuses and compensation packages- Longer term focus on careers in the sector (less retiring at 30 etc...)- Reversion to the 'old boys network' of model hiring?- Innovation?- Greater focus on compliance and technologies to reduce the overhead of compliance.- Speculative leveraged trading will involve smaller sums of money- Greater mistrust of all things quant - Greater reliance on computers and numerical methods as opposed to analytic methods and assumptions? ('Assumption is the mother of all f*ckups')These are just a few of the things I have been thinking. The trap to avoid: Is to believe that because things are bad now that everything quant is consigned to the ashes and that finance itself is finished. I think that certain aspects of the old model (untrammeled OTC derivates trading, complicated stochastic calculus, massive bonuses etc...) might be significantly curtailed, but that does not mean that other developments will not occur. People are still going to want to play the game and quant skills will still be useful to do it.