November 1st, 2011, 10:25 pm
if we put for simplicity r = 0 and we are at t then optimal exercise american option in theory is the random time on [ t , T ] when it offers max of the return. If S ( u ) is a random function then buyer of the call think that he can sell option for and receives max { S ( u ) - K , 0 } at any u from [ t , T ]. Non markovian moment h of exercise is one that { S ( h ) - K , 0 } / C ( t , x ) - 1 = max { u : S ( u ) - K , 0 } / C ( t , x ) - 1 or { S ( h ) - K , 0 } = max { u : S ( u ) - K , 0 }. This non markovian moment can be approximated by markovian moments which specify return and risk to fail. If market price of the American call is c and S is GBM we can calculate { u : S ( h(q) ) - K , 0 } / c - 1 where h (q) is the moment to reach level q > 0 by S ( u ). We can calculate the chance that investor will exercise call. Having a strategy which specifies upper bound for the admitted risk one can find appropriate level q and make a decision whether to buy or not option. It somewhat alternative approach.