May 10th, 2003, 4:10 am
its pretty useful for cash equity trading in markets where short-selling is NOT allowed. the important thing is even if two baskets have a correlation more than 0.30 then they will always fall or rise together over a period of 1 week in a bear or bull market. i have usually found correlations less than 0.30 to be a good cut-off. in bear markets, its pretty hard to make money on broad market indices or large market cap stocks, except in a bear market rallies. one way out is to try and create indicies usuing criterias like capitalization, growth/value and sectors and take a view on them. sector funds are usually also not that effective, unless you go for low market-cap sectors, for instance sectors like IT, Pharma, etc are likely to have a correlation more than 0.30 with the broad market index and are no good. on the other hand, sectors like heavy engineering, cement, or fmcg etc can be good. the key is to avoid sectors with too many stocks in the broad market-cap indices, say for instance stocks in the S&P 100. another factor could be use dividend yield, but didn't find it useful. choose sets of indices that have less than 0.30 correlations (say over a period of 1 previous bull and 1 previous bear market).
Last edited by
pb273 on May 9th, 2003, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.