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ekeenan81
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Joined: May 4th, 2009, 11:59 am

General Question with Regards to CDS Pricing

March 9th, 2012, 8:15 pm

As we all know with Dodd-Frank there are a lot of developments in the market with CDS and IRS.Given that CDS are more standardized they eventually should begin trading like a future.The quoted price that is provided in the market is always from the Buyer of Protection point of view?Ex.Alcoa 1% 3/20/2017 is price > 100 given that market spread < deal spreadAlcoa 5% 3/20/2017 is price < 100 given that market spread > deal spreadThe buyer of protection then makes money as the price goes down as probability of default increases which makes his contract have 'more value' conversely the seller of protection would lose money as default probability goes up his contract value goes down due to the increased risk?
 
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daveangel
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Joined: October 20th, 2003, 4:05 pm

General Question with Regards to CDS Pricing

March 10th, 2012, 7:09 am

is the specification for the contract ?
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hanss
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Joined: February 3rd, 2009, 7:09 pm

General Question with Regards to CDS Pricing

March 10th, 2012, 9:12 pm

Bloomberg does not explain the specifications of the contract?
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

General Question with Regards to CDS Pricing

March 10th, 2012, 9:30 pm

This is all rather confused. Aside from a slow creep toward central clearing, DF has not yet had any particular impact on the CDS market, aside from perhaps contributing to decreased liquidity in single name contracts as US dealers are stepping back from market-making activities as they worry about the Volcker rule. It is hard to see any reason why they "should begin trading like futures", although some kind of SEFs will probably come into play (even though only SEF providers and politicians seem to want them). The market is not quoted in terms of the sort of "price" you are referring to, it is quoted in points upfront for high yield names and a sort of equivalent running spread for IG (loosely speaking). In order to make sense of the quoted spread, you really need to pass it through the standard CDS model to get the actual upfront amount paid along with (usually) 100 bps running. And, yes, the buyer of protection (seller of risk) makes money as the market spread widens, whether that is due to increased default probability, decreased recovery expectations, or increased risk premium.
 
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ekeenan81
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Joined: May 4th, 2009, 11:59 am

General Question with Regards to CDS Pricing

March 15th, 2012, 11:47 am

Apologies, I should have been clearer.CME and ICE for example are providing Clean Prices ... so no accrued.They are providing one price.Ex.97.254 for Alcoa 1% 12/20/2017 contract.The way I interpret this then is as the 'price' goes down, means the probability of default is higher as market spreads are increasing from deal spread... so as the price goes down the 'Buyer of Protection' makes money.Similiarly if market spreads tighten to deal spread, probability of default is lower so the price will be > 100