March 10th, 2012, 9:30 pm
This is all rather confused. Aside from a slow creep toward central clearing, DF has not yet had any particular impact on the CDS market, aside from perhaps contributing to decreased liquidity in single name contracts as US dealers are stepping back from market-making activities as they worry about the Volcker rule. It is hard to see any reason why they "should begin trading like futures", although some kind of SEFs will probably come into play (even though only SEF providers and politicians seem to want them). The market is not quoted in terms of the sort of "price" you are referring to, it is quoted in points upfront for high yield names and a sort of equivalent running spread for IG (loosely speaking). In order to make sense of the quoted spread, you really need to pass it through the standard CDS model to get the actual upfront amount paid along with (usually) 100 bps running. And, yes, the buyer of protection (seller of risk) makes money as the market spread widens, whether that is due to increased default probability, decreased recovery expectations, or increased risk premium.