November 29th, 2012, 11:51 pm
I think your confusion comes from a lack of appreciation of different time scales.Over a very small time interval we can say, for a stock price (and ignoring 'unchanged'), that probability_up = 0.5 + very small correctionprobability_down = 0.5 - same very small correctionSuch a statement is true in the real-world and compatible with all sorts of distributions over longer time periods, likea day, a week, etc. For stocks, over a day, the return distribution is actually quite wide-tailed (kurtosis >> 3)and so not close to either normal or lognormal looking. If you don't understand the point, study the binomial model for a lognormal variate as explained say in Hull,looking at very small times.