I'm participating in a futball tournament this week. 28 teams, 6 games. Top 16 teams advance to the playoffs. I would like to calculate the odds my team will be in the top 16 teams based on each record, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1, 6-0. I know nothing about the other teams so I assume the mean win/loss probability is 50% and the standard deviation for 6 iterations is 1.224745 games. For example, being 4-2 would puts us in the 79th percentile. This would make us feel pretty good about being top 16 among 28, but what are the odds that a 4-2 record will get us into the playoffs assuming a normal distribution?