Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
User avatar
SigmundFraud
Topic Author
Posts: 0
Joined: June 16th, 2012, 11:41 am

Expectation

November 15th, 2013, 11:49 am

Saw this, thought it's half fun:Suppose there is a PDF [$]f(X)[$] and a CDF [$]F(x) = Pr[\text{X}<x][$] then what is [$]\mathbb{E}[F(\text{X})][$]?
 
User avatar
EBal
Posts: 6
Joined: May 20th, 2005, 1:30 pm

Expectation

November 15th, 2013, 12:21 pm

1/2?
 
User avatar
kinnally
Posts: 0
Joined: March 22nd, 2012, 2:29 pm

Expectation

November 16th, 2013, 5:27 am

EBal got the answer, here's the reason: X has the same distribution as F^{-1}(U), where U is uniformly distributed over [0,1], so E[F(X)] = E[F(F^{-1}(U))] = E = 1/2, since F is continuous by assumption.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Expectation

November 16th, 2013, 1:47 pm

Alternatively, you can write down the expectation as the integral of the product of F(x) and f(x) and apply integration by parts.
Last edited by bearish on November 15th, 2013, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Ultraviolet
Posts: 1
Joined: August 15th, 2012, 9:46 am

Expectation

November 16th, 2013, 10:37 pm

Alternatively :-)[$]dF(x)/dx = \rho(x)[$][$]E[F(X)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} F(x)\rho(x) dx = \int_0^1 F(x) dF(x) = \int_0^1 t dt = 1/2[$]
Last edited by Ultraviolet on November 15th, 2013, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 3:27 am

Clearly, this cat can be skinned in all sorts of ways. kinnally's answer actually contains the intuition, but it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 4:40 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5
Last edited by Cuchulainn on November 16th, 2013, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 3300
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 5:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5And the zero..5
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 5:19 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5And the zero..5Yes, how sloppy.
 
User avatar
FritzJacob
Posts: 3
Joined: January 22nd, 2010, 11:15 am

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 5:22 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5And the zero..5Yes, how sloppy.Yeah....he could have answered under 1 minute....took 32.
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 5:58 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: FritzJacobQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5And the zero..5Yes, how sloppy.Yeah....he could have answered under 1 minute....took 32. Maybe he wanted to check the round-off errors.
 
User avatar
Traden4Alpha
Posts: 3300
Joined: September 20th, 2002, 8:30 pm

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 6:16 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: FritzJacobQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: Traden4AlphaQuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: bearish[...] it is hard to improve on EBal's brevity.You could try removing the question mark. 0.5And the zero..5Yes, how sloppy.Yeah....he could have answered under 1 minute....took 32. Maybe he wanted to check the round-off errors.0.25^(1.0/2.0)
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Expectation

November 17th, 2013, 7:42 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: UltravioletAlternatively :-)[$]dF(x)/dx = \rho(x)[$][$]E[F(X)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} F(x)\rho(x) dx = \int_0^1 F(x) dF(x) = \int_0^1 t dt = 1/2[$]Is it possible to get the answer using geometry?
 
User avatar
FritzJacob
Posts: 3
Joined: January 22nd, 2010, 11:15 am

Expectation

November 18th, 2013, 1:08 am

QuoteOriginally posted by: CuchulainnQuoteOriginally posted by: UltravioletAlternatively :-)[$]dF(x)/dx = \rho(x)[$][$]E[F(X)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} F(x)\rho(x) dx = \int_0^1 F(x) dF(x) = \int_0^1 t dt = 1/2[$]Is it possible to get the answer using geometry?When F(x) is plotted against its own "probability density" pdf_F(x), we get a rectangle.E[F(x)] = half the area of this rectangle = 0.5*1*1= 0.5
Last edited by FritzJacob on November 17th, 2013, 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
wileysw
Posts: 7
Joined: December 9th, 2006, 6:13 pm

Expectation

December 5th, 2013, 4:48 am

here is a symmetry argument: simply consider two i.i.d. random variables labeled as X and x, what is the probability of X < x?note this indeed highlights what kinnally said above that the CDF needs to be continuous for the answer to be 1/2, i.e., the PDF has no point mass (Dirac delta) thus Pr(X=x) would be zero