Do you think you are the only person who realizes the US economy is not doing all that well? Like hey, all these crazy idiots are acting like it is humming along, but I am going to trade against them because I know better?This Mt. Gox thing has been interesting. Bitcoin traded at $220 on Mt. Gox when it was over $600 on Bitstamp. But did you hear hundreds of people in forums crying about it? No. There must be hundreds, if not thousands, crying over it. But they don't want to cause a "run on the bank" or talk down the value of their favorite holding.And so it is, perhaps, with the US economy. Some want to put on a strong face. Others just don't want to stick their necks out and be embarrassed. And some are probably keeping quiet, thinking they are the only ones who notice that between retail sales and new unemployment claims, the US economy looks no better than any other time in the past X years, and placing their trades.

The numbers are coming in pretty bad today: Japan exports, China HSBC PMI, French services PMI and inflation... The problem, of course, is a lack of sufficient Quantitative Easing. So how does it all work? For the benefit of the less economically sophisticated participants in the forum, I decided to put together a little cheat sheet so that you can predict the relevant economic numbers in advance based on the exact amount of QE.To start out, here is US nonfarm payrolls creation per month, together with US GDP growth. The number on the left is the the monthly jobs creation, followed by GDP growth, and on the right is the "pace" of QE in monthly purchases associated with that level of growth:30,000 - 1.1% - $10 billion60,000 - 1.4% - $20 billion90,000 - 1.7% - $30 billion120,000 - 2.1% - $40 billion150,000 - 2.4% - $50 billion180,000 - 2.7% - $60 billion210,000 - 3.0% - $70 billion240,000 - 3.3% - $80 billion270,000 - 3.6% - $90 billion300,000 - 4.1% - $100 billionSo it's pretty simple: You choose the level of jobs and GDP growth you desire, trace to the right, and you see the amount of QE it will require to get there. On the flip side, given the level of QE, you can in turn predict the GDP or jobs growth you will realize. So when you hear all this talk of QE and a pickup in inflation, you need only look at the chart and you will know what they are talking about.

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerThe numbers are coming in pretty bad today: Japan exports, China HSBC PMI, French services PMI and inflation... The problem, of course, is a lack of sufficient Quantitative Easing. So how does it all work? For the benefit of the less economically sophisticated participants in the forum, I decided to put together a little cheat sheet so that you can predict the relevant economic numbers in advance based on the exact amount of QE.To start out, here is US nonfarm payrolls creation per month, together with US GDP growth. The number on the left is the the monthly jobs creation, followed by GDP growth, and on the right is the "pace" of QE in monthly purchases associated with that level of growth:30,000 - 1.1% - $10 billion60,000 - 1.4% - $20 billion90,000 - 1.7% - $30 billion120,000 - 2.1% - $40 billion150,000 - 2.4% - $50 billion180,000 - 2.7% - $60 billion210,000 - 3.0% - $70 billion240,000 - 3.3% - $80 billion270,000 - 3.6% - $90 billion300,000 - 4.1% - $100 billionSo it's pretty simple: You choose the level of jobs and GDP growth you desire, trace to the right, and you see the amount of QE it will require to get there. On the flip side, given the level of QE, you can in turn predict the GDP or jobs growth you will realize. So when you hear all this talk of QE and a pickup in inflation, you need only look at the chart and you will know what they are talking about.Where did you get these numbers? Is this real GDP growth? As they say often, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. Most of the prediction does fine with the past though, just to keep things respectable. Unless i misunderstand something, yours doesn't. At $85 billion a month, growth during 2013 was 1.9%, roughly 50% of 3.45% that your table predicts.

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaAt $85 billion a month, growth during 2013 was 1.9%, roughly 50% of 3.45% that your table predicts.This is a consequence of transitory factors which we expect to abate in the coming quarter. Expectations remain firmly anchored.

Given the huge runup in value there must people people with millions of dollars tied up in mtgox but I have not heard a peep form them

Seems like everybody is bearish and keen to trade countertrend. I am going to be contrary to the contrarians, and say that things are not so bad.The price of copper and iron ore falling is a good thing. It would be nice to see oil down also.Japan has 3.7% unemployment, US unemployment claims are to the low side of the range, US import and export prices are firm, Europe is walking along. China? Their loss is our gain. They have what, a couple small defaults? Big defaults, who cares.

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaIs this real GDP growth? As they say often, prediction is difficult, especially about the future.US Q1 GDP growth: .1%! Wow! That was even with the US consumer braving the ice, apparently. Now we know why they can't keep the bonds down.Thank you Ben Bernanke for saving the world. Exports down 7.6%. That is much worse than the Japan PMI last night. Given my love of France, I hope they figure out a way to get some QE over in Europe pretty soon.Maybe Mather is wrong and El Erian is right?

What a naughty US GDP growth number released today.

Yes, obviously the weather was even worse than people remember

QuoteOriginally posted by: farmerDo you think you are the only person who realizes the US economy is not doing all that well? Like hey, all these crazy idiots are acting like it is humming along, but I am going to trade against them because I know better?This Mt. Gox thing has been interesting. Bitcoin traded at $220 on Mt. Gox when it was over $600 on Bitstamp. But did you hear hundreds of people in forums crying about it? No. There must be hundreds, if not thousands, crying over it. But they don't want to cause a "run on the bank" or talk down the value of their favorite holding.And so it is, perhaps, with the US economy. Some want to put on a strong face. Others just don't want to stick their necks out and be embarrassed. And some are probably keeping quiet, thinking they are the only ones who notice that between retail sales and new unemployment claims, the US economy looks no better than any other time in the past X years, and placing their trades.for the US economy to prosper easing should continue. unless there is an economic rational why should easing be discontinued. had inflation been out of hand a gradual move towards tightening would have been justified. with no signs of economy heating up inflationary pressures still weak stock market rising why should this healthy equilibrium be disturbed. the growth seen so far is under a controlled environment of stimulus. whats the assurance growth will continue and economy will not relapse into a recession when stimulus is removed.