July 4th, 2014, 8:37 am
ppauper's question about capital goes deeper than you might think...For pure latency arbitrage and the bleeding edge of HFT it is often better to model the risk not as "market risk" ie the chance that your bets will goes tits up, but "project risk", ie you are spending real money on hardware, programmers, quants, strats etc, and this investment may not pay off.As we have seen there are a large number of "market opportunities" that can only be exploited by having a cosy relationship with the exchanges, ie be a big customer.So there is a time structure to the game, with various conditions.Firstly you may build something good enough to grow into a business, the odds are against you, but the payoff is potentially good.The more likely path is that it doesn't fly. There are many modes from this, such as simply your model not working in practice, the market changing, it requiring more capital than you can access or the size of the exloit not being all that big.So if you do this, you must prepare to fail well....As you build this system, think of it as being just like your PhD or any other substantial project that you've done, in terms of not just being good, but looking good to someone who knows this stuff.If you fail, the next best thing is to turn up at a bank or HF and use it to show that you know this stuff and that you've learned harsh lessons that they benefit from but haven't shared your pain.So for instance, a bit more attention to risk and limit management, objective analysis of when to walk and when to run out of a position, recording in a journal every thing you've learned about the msarket you've targetted.The difference between a veteran and a victim is what you learn from your pain.It will be hard, that of itself can be spun when you go for a wage slave job, employers like worth ethic, being a self starter and a fuzzy thing I'm going to call "entrepreneurship".