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Anthis
Posts: 7
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 11:00 am

QuoteThe Dutch also perform duties all over the world with Nato allies; and they will purchase JSF fighter planes (which is overkill..)Same for Greeks. Currently, there is a unit of engineers in Afghanistan and some ships patroling outside Somalia waters. On the other hand, since Holland borders only with EU countries, Dutch armed forces should be stationed at the EU borders, not few miles away from Dam square.QuoteAFAIK it is Italy that bears the most brunt.(?) I hear little about Greek ships picking up the distressed. Correct me if I am wrong, but Greece is doing next to nothing as they arrive on the shores of Lesbos.Italy certainly bears a lot, but its also Spain, Greece, and to some extent Bulgaria. Each country has to cope with different waves of immigrants. In Italy its mostly Africans, in Greece its mostly people from Syria Iraq or Pakistan and Afghanistan. EU funded partially the fence project along Evros river, as a result people dont get drown in the river any more, they get drown in the sea in their attempt to hop from Turkey to the islands. Once resqued from the coast guard, or manage to step on the land they must be arrested, recorded, offered first aid, then put into some camp. At least they have some food and shelter there, but all camps are full now. For most of these people the final destination are countries in Northern Europe like Germany or Holland. Under EU treaties we cant allow them move to their destination, and Turkey doesnt accept them back. Essentially, these people are trapped in Greece. In the past the government chartered flights for those willing to return back to their Countries. Not sure if this program keeps on though. To my knowledge EU apart from sending some Frontex detachments here, hasnt done anything drastic on this issue. Its just another case of externalities, enjoyed by the core countries.
 
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zerdna
Posts: 1
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 1:28 pm

Quote baroufa means nonsense in GreekI heard Yanis speak a number of times for long times -- i heard not a word of nonsense, i saw an extremely smart and honest person. In spite of being diametrically opposite to me politically, Varoufakis without a doubt is the smartest guy in the room when all ministers of Eurozone are together by light years, and i would guess in most of other rooms as well. But the question is not about smart, question is simply about being honest about obvious things. Anyone, who is not clinically, mentally ill and heard about addition and multiplication knows that he is right in his main demand that Greece needs significant debt forgiveness. It doesn't matter what reform Greece does or does not, whether it defaults or not, whether it stays in Euro or not. He was faced for all these months with pathologically, shamelessly lying Eurocrats who basically denied something as undeniable as the law of gravitation, while European Central Bank was strangling weak Greek banks into insolvency. All these negotiations were not about conditions of economic help to Greece, they were about overthrowing Greek government by creating hardship for Greek population. The reason for hate and slander of Varoufakis and Tsirpas is they are not another two "damp office rugs" who would take marching orders from from any nameless robot from Brussels, because these two negotiated and will negotiate for Greeks. Don't repeat these words of slander.
Last edited by zerdna on July 3rd, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ppauper
Posts: 11729
Joined: November 15th, 2001, 1:29 pm

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 2:06 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: AnthisEU funded partially the fence project along Evros river, as a result people dont get drown in the river any more, they get drown in the sea in their attempt to hop from Turkey to the islands. perhaps they should have got Trump to build itQuoteI would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I?ll build them very inexpensively, I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall.
 
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Anthis
Posts: 7
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 2:59 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: zerdnaQuote baroufa means nonsense in GreekI heard Yanis speak a number of times for long times -- i heard not a word of nonsense, i saw an extremely smart and honest person. In spite of being diametrically opposite to me politically, Varoufakis without a doubt is the smartest guy in the room when all ministers of Eurozone are together by light years, and i would guess in most of other rooms as well. But the question is not about smart, question is simply about being honest about obvious things. Anyone, who is not clinically, mentally ill and heard about addition and multiplication knows that he is right in his main demand that Greece needs significant debt forgiveness. It doesn't matter what reform Greece does or does not, whether it defaults or not, whether it stays in Euro or not. He was faced for all these months with pathologically, shamelessly lying Eurocrats who basically denied something as undeniable as the law of gravitation, while European Central Bank was strangling weak Greek banks into insolvency. All these negotiations were not about conditions of economic help to Greece, they were about overthrowing Greek government by creating hardship for Greek population. The reason for hate and slander of Varoufakis and Tsirpas is they are not another two "damp office rugs" who would take marching orders from from any nameless robot from Brussels, because these two negotiated and will negotiate for Greeks. Don't repeat these words of slander.Over the last 15 years I have never met and never heard about Yanis, who insists to write his name with one n contrary to orthography rules, just like dyslectic kids, in any conference I have participated. I just know him from public information accessible to anyone who watches tv reads newspapers and has internet access.He is one of the persons who tried to build a career capitalizing on crisis, by blogging extensivelly, attracting publicity and writing cheesy books about crisis. He was rewarded with the position of Finance minister last January. He was delivered an economy with open banks, booming tourism sector, primary surplus way above target budget, FDI inflows, a weak but positive GDP growth rate, and a slightly declining but still high unemployment rate.Within 5 months he managed to have deficits, hired more in public sector, closed banks and imposed capital controls, staled FDI, damaged tourist sector, have bank deposits risking a haircut, pensioners unpaid, default for 1.5 to IMF, and current expectations talk about a 3% recession, while country's position in eurozone and EU is at risk, at the same time when Draghi imposes QE in eurozone and Junker plans a huge growth plan. I dont dare to imagine the damage to the economy should he had been just a little bit less smart and wise.As an epilogue, I just quote this week's top nonsense by Yanis1. Once questioned by journalist if he considers to impose Capital controls few hours after the decision for a referendum was made.... "Closed banks and Capital controls are unhearable for a eurozone country". Two hours later he signed decision to keep banks closed for 6 working days, at the turn of the month when everybody receives his salary or pension, businesses pay taxes and suppliers.2. Yesterday.... "Banks will be open next Tuesday for business as usual". At the same time bank's CEO's warn that cash available is unlikely to last for longer than next Monday.... Someone should have informed him that capital controls in Cyprus were lifted two years after while in Iceland were lifted 5 years after. 3. Yesterday, once asked by a Foreign journalist if he has queued in ATMs together with ordinary citizens.... "Its not up to my class to queue for just 60 euros"... no comment....Unlike Stournaras and Hardouvelis who live here, Yanis has always the option to catch the next plane and go back to Texas or Australia. On the other hand, I know quite a few dozens of people, mostly businessmen, who would like to catch him alive, after last week's events.
 
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zerdna
Posts: 1
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 4:37 pm

QuoteOver the last 15 years I have never met and never heard about Yanis, who insists to write his name with one n contrary to orthography rules, just like dyslectic kids, in any conference I have participatedReally? As opposed to all the rest of known game theorists, Nobel prize winners in economics over last 20 years, and the rest of economics dignitaries all of whom you surely met? Could one of the reason he didn't manage to introduce himself to you is he lived in England, States, and Australia as you noted yourself? In spite of having just one "n" in his self-mangled name he managed not just to write bullshit crisis books, but also lecture in Cambridge. As i said the dispute of how smart is Varoufakis or how many "n's" should be in his name is not the issue, it's a slander, a distraction from the issue. The issue is his message, which is basically accurate -- Greece needs large debt relief, and the longer this need is swept under the carpet, the worse off Greece is. I am sure you know about IMF publicly admitting this painfully obvious point recently. Why did they deny Greece that for years or at least for these last five months while Varoufakis as you vividly argued was destroying thriving Greek economy? Skyrocketing Greek unemployment from the prosperous level of 25% that he inherited, to the heights of 25.01%? P.S. As far as saying "no capital control" up to the point of its introduction, it's strange you mention this as some kind of crime or abnormality. Do you know of a single precedent when some leader who subsequently introduced capital control said beforehand -- "we plan to have capital controls next week"? Enlighten me, because i know of no episodes like this. I am no game theorist, but i kind of guess why that is the case.
Last edited by zerdna on July 3rd, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ExSan
Posts: 495
Joined: April 12th, 2003, 10:40 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 6:03 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: outrunJust had a great dinner at a Greek restaurant.probably the last time you do
 
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bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 6:16 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: ExSanQuoteOriginally posted by: outrunJust had a great dinner at a Greek restaurant.probably the last time you doIf Greece remains in the common European labor market and crashes out of the EZ, I can see an increased supply of Greek restaurateurs in Northern Europe in short order. Speaking of short order cooks, for some reason, almost all the classic New Jersey diners are run by Greeks. That must be related to an earlier Grexodus.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7931
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 6:18 pm

Donald Tusk contra Junckers hysteria:QuoteNo matter how Greeks vote Sunday, the EU is looking for ways "to keep them inside" the single currency, though that may require "a completely new" approach to allow the eurozone to coexist with a bankrupt country, Donald Tusk told POLITICO.http://www.politico.eu/article/tusk-nob ... um-crisis/
Last edited by katastrofa on July 3rd, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Anthis
Posts: 7
Joined: October 22nd, 2001, 10:06 am

grexit

July 4th, 2015, 7:01 pm

Let me reply bottom-up.QuoteP.S. As far as saying "no capital control" up to the point of its introduction, it's strange you mention this as some kind of crime or abnormality. Do you know of a single precedent when some leader or minister who subsequently introduced capital control said beforehand -- "we plan to have capital controls next week"? Enlighten me, because i know of no episodes like this. I am no game theorist, but i kind of guess why that is the case. Timeline of events:Right after 1 am Friday to Saturday in the middle of the night Tsipras announced the referendum. Since last December when elections were announced, deposit levels were been reduced steadily at a monthly base, reversing the previous trend. Right after referendum announcement people who were awake rushed on ATMs to withrdaw as much money as possible. By 10 am of Saturday all Athens ATMs were empty, by early afternoon there were empty selves at supermarkets, and no gas at gas stations. It was early evening of Saturday, with banks closed for the weekend and ATMs empty when Yanis said about no capital controls and two hours later he decided to impose them. Quite ridiculous. Of course capital controls and many other things are not pre-announced, but he denied it even when it seems quite obvious and inevitable.QuoteThe issue is his message, which is basically accurate -- Greece needs large debt relief, and the longer this need is swept under the carpet, the worse off Greece is. I am sure you know about IMF publicly admitting this painfully obvious point recently. Why did they denied Greece that for years or at least for these last five months while Varoufakis as you vividly argued was destroying thriving Greek economy? Skyrocketing Greek unemployment from the prosperous level of 25% that he inherited, to the heights of 25.01%? A debt relief, even if its a 100% write off, without reforms, will lead to the same results, that is new deficits and a growing public debt within the next 10-15 years. Currently the public debt is structured in a way that it costs ~2% to serve it without any major principal redemptions for the next decade. There are eurozone countries who borrow at higher rates and lend Greece at 2%. There are countries (Latvia, Poland, Slovakia) whose average citizen has a much lower standard of living than the average Greek, even in times of austerity. Seeking debt relief from people poorer than you, is at least ridiculous. Seeking debt relief from these people while at the same time you refuse to make reforms, the same reforms these people have already made, is twice ridiculous. Everybody in eurogroup agrees that its the reforms that matter. The any debt relief can be discussed when the time is right, not now.But Syriza was elected promising no reforms, on the contrary they promised to hire back in public sector those how had been fired, to cancel privatisations, to increase salaries and pensions, and to keep premature pensions going. Should eurozone member states fund these nonsense? I really doubt.QuoteReally? As opposed to all the rest of known game theorists, Nobel prize winners in economics over last 20 years, and the rest of economics dignitaries all of whom you surely met? Could one of the reason he didn't manage to introduce himself to you is he lived in England, States, and Australia as you noted yourself? In spite of having just one "n" in his self-mangled name he managed not just to write bullshit crisis books, but also lecture in Cambridge.His CV is just a google away. Since 2000 he has been affiliated to the faculty of economics of university of Athens. But unlike many other colleagues of his, never happened to meet him or hear anything about his research work. He was lecturing in Cambridge much earlier. I dont know if lecturing in Cambridge makes him some sort of sacred cow, but in a practitioner's world one is judged by results, not by credentials. Many academics despite their credentials are not capable to run a hotdog cart, let alone a whole country.
 
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zerdna
Posts: 1
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

grexit

July 5th, 2015, 12:54 pm

QuoteCurrently the public debt is structured in a way that it costs ~2% to serve it without any major principal redemptions for the next decade. Is that right? Like over 80 billion euro of redemptions over next 10 years is not major? Isn't it like 36% GDP? Since the 80s there were no 10 year period in Greek history where it cumulated 10 year growth was 36% of GDP if there was ever, and that's just redemptions. Talking of financing costs, these 2% you mention, they are percents of what, you forgot to say? Greek debt has coupons between 2% and 6.3% if i remember correctly and total outstanding debt is what, 180% of GDP? Currently, Greek financing needs for 2015 are over 5 billion euro in interest and 15 billion euro in redemptions this year, 20 billion this year total, 9% of their GDP. Greece could pay that, no problem? IMF DSA report which i assume you didn't read gives a number of 50 billion euro debt financing needs for three year period between October 2015- end of 2018 -- they have a detailed breakdown. If you think it's not a big deal for Greece to pay, then we have bigger disagreements then appropriate number of n's in Varoufakis name.
Last edited by zerdna on July 4th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

grexit

July 5th, 2015, 1:13 pm

QuoteCurrently the public debt is structured in a way that it costs ~2% to serve it without any major principal redemptions for the next decade. This is hilarious. Probably another example of 'creative accounting'. Something they excel at down there..
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 4th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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somor
Posts: 156
Joined: July 14th, 2002, 3:00 am

grexit

July 5th, 2015, 1:14 pm

The whole referendum thing is irrelevant. Tsipras and Varoufakis are merely playing for time.
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

grexit

July 5th, 2015, 1:27 pm

QuoteOriginally posted by: somorThe whole referendum thing is irrelevant. Tsipras and Varoufakis are merely playing for time.To a certain extent, yes. But if you pause to ponder, there's more to it than meets the eye. For one thing, it gives the Greek people a chance to say what they think of the EU/IMF cartel. See the threat by ECB to Ireland QuoteIndependent MP Catherine Murphy said Ireland took on 43 percent of the European banking crisis but the government ?never even asked for that debt to be written down?.So, in a sense Ireland save that crumbling cartel.
Last edited by Cuchulainn on July 4th, 2015, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.