I have been studying the Indian market for a few years closelyand do get a feeling a multi year bull market is possible over next10-20 years.To take advantage of this I am trying to do a historical studyand detailed analysis of major bull markets in last 100 years invarious parts of the world.If you know and point to me good source where I can analyze details of majorbull markets I will greatly appreciate that. If any of you have expertise in emerging market I will be gladto have your esteemed opinion on some of my observations hereunder.The major reason for the possibility of a massive bull market in India to me are as follows:1. Demographics and massive increase in consumer base.2. Massive increase in education and productivity. It is mindboggling really. This is further accelerated by rapid penetration of smart phone and a 4G boom going to hit very soon.3. Massive increase in population coming to the formal banking channel.4. With China in slowdown mode, Europe in stagnation for next decade(for sure and maybe more), US digging its own grave with defunct and ridiculous immigration policy amidst a nearly saturated consumption base India remains the only big economy which can grow at reasonable pace for next 2 decades.5. At some point the pension funds and hedge funds in US/Europe will realize it is ridiculous and complete waste of time to spend so much of there capital in saturated US and declining Europe to get peanut returns when you can get much higher return in India. 6. Structural change in mindset of India's population from land and gold to equities. This is the biggest driver to me for a sustained bull market and as per capita increases in India the inflexion point will come soon.7. Massive growth in remittance. India's biggest export is its manpower. With sharp skill up gradation I get a feeling India will export even higher number of people and remittance will grow significantly.8. Massive and disruptive technology changes will also help leapfrog India. The quantum jump in machine learning, analytics, bigdata, building/construction industry, manufacturing/3D printing, IOT, pharma/genomics, seeds/food processing and most important of all solar energy and renewable is hugely positive for a massively over populated country like India.

You paint a rosy picture.Quote4. With China in slowdown mode, Europe in stagnation for next decade(for sure and maybe more), US digging its own grave with defunct and ridiculous immigration policy amidst a nearly saturated consumption base India remains the only big economy which can grow at reasonable pace for next 2 decades.Prediction is difficult, especially the future. Even if true, India has huge social problem. Rape seems to be a national hobby. Quote. Massive increase in education and productivity. It is mindboggling really.Many countries are experiencing this. I don't find it all that mindboggling. How many Indians do C++? I personally have not any, but many from China. QuoteChina will become the hub of hardware and India the hub of softwarereally?

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Dr Cuch,I have great respect for you and you are a well known figure in this field. So I guess I expect some thing better from a man of your stature than comments like Rape seems to be a national hobby.That is the most disgusting comment and in extreme bad taste. I am sure there are lot of Indian's in the field of quant finance and also in this forum.I am sure they also have high respect for you.So I hope in the future you will keep that in mind and mind your language. I do believe Indians are doing quiet well in Silicon Valley. I also agree Chinese are alsodoing well.Well I have made some objective assessment based on my understanding. I may wellbe wrong. Only time will say if my understanding is correct.

There is a India thread on OT initiated by samudra. I do not post on it but every time I read it other tend to post the same things as I mentioned. It's horrible and nothing is done about it. And my quote was a quote from someone else on OT India thread. Rape in India is widespread it would seem and goes unpunished.So, instead of advertising how wonderful you are is IMO you need to address social issues as well.QuoteRarely in the history has a nation had almost everything working for it. India is the luckiest country in the world now./end

From my little experience the jump from emerging market to a well developed market is mostly depends on the homogeneity of the population. The more homogeneous the society, the easier it will advance toward a mature and modern economy (South Korea, Singapore and Chile springs to mind). In the case of India however, with its wide range heterogeneous societies which consists different castes and ethnic groups changes in the bureaucratic structure as well in the public management are likely to take one step at a time, or inch by inch. So if I were in your shoes, I'd firstly focus on the emerging economics with heterogeneous societies (such as Brazil, South Africa and/or Turkey perhaps) and only then start analysing the behaviour of those markets when the bulls 'won hands down'. Hope this helps

somor,thanks a lot. Thank you for spending your valuable time toprovide these great feedback. The information you provide is really very valuable and Ihave not thought in this direction.Can you tell me the correlation of demographics to bull markets in emergingeconomies.I am now studing US bull markets in 1932 -35 , 1953 - 59 and 1982 - 1998. The common and most important aspect has been demographic dividend and remarkable productivity growthlargely due to stellar improvement in education and skillenhancement of US population. .From your understanding of bull markets of the countries you mentiondo you think the demographics was an important aspect of them?The reason I raise this issue is demographics, skill development andincreasing aspiration of 1.2 billion + people seems to me to be the main driverof the mother of all bull market which we will witness in coming years in India .Correct me if my understanding is correct.1. I need to study bull markets of South Korea, Singapore, Chile etc.2. Study bull market of Brazil, South Africa etc.The information you provide is extremely valuable for one reason. There is dramatic change in Indian political landscape. We have avery dynamic prime minister who is trying to promote competition among the states (homogeneous entities). If things evolve properly andif PM Mr Modi manages to be in power for 15 yrs or so (which tome is a very distinct possibility) India will evolve more like Euro UnionI mean one country but more like a union SO IN INDIA A STEADY INFLEXION WILL BE THERE FROM SEEMING HETEROGENITYTO CLUSTERED HOMOGENITY IN MIDST OF HETEROGENITY IN NEAR FUTURE . People who know India will understand India was NEVER meant to bea country . No other country has such heterogeneity. What manages tokeep India together as a country is and will remain a big mystery to me.

samudra, I wouldn't say, at least from my little experience, that higher education and skill enhancement is directly correlated with emerging markets growth. Actually, the growth emerges from the bottom when people of the low-classes gets out of the poor, finds job and acquires the local cultural values. Thus, if you study the economic growth in, for example, Brasil during the term of President Lula (from 2003-11) and/or of PM Recep Erdoğan in Turkey (Particularly his term between 2004-11 before he turned to be a megalomaniacal dictator) you may derived much more reliable information and possibly correlation than studying the US stock market in the 30s and the 50s for instance. You've got a point - a dynamic person in power can do a lot. And PM Modi is well regarded in this respect. Hope this helps.

somor,Thanks a lot. A very valuable input. Actually, the growth emerges from the bottom when people of the low-classes gets out of the poor, finds job and acquires the local cultural values.This creates consumers and consumers creates bull market. Now if this consumer also upgrades skill they are more productive. More GDP growth so magnified bull market. This is what is happening in India and to top it up PM Mr Modi is probably the politician with best marketing skills. He is covering length and breadth of world to get more investment. He has the ability toconvince. So money will start flowing in soon and from trickle to deluge it will be. It is pureluck that India has got a great PM and a very good Central banker ! A rare thing