November 8th, 2015, 2:14 pm
QuoteOriginally posted by: Nimbus3000Let me try to explain my train of thought. Suppose there are two stocks. The historical volatility (say over 5 year) of one of them is say 20% and other is 40%. Now, some event takes place due to which the volatility of both of these stocks rise to 60%. If I am not looking at any model per se, should the premium for similar options on these stocks be the same as the volatility of both of them is the same or should the premium differ as the volatility of one of them has risen far more than that of the other. Again, I'm not sure if this makes a lot of sense but I've not been able to get my head around this.Yes, the option premiums as measured by the implied volatility could well differ. The important idea is that the implied volatility of an option is a forward-looking quantity, as opposed to the historical volatility. Generally, the market anticipates that volatility will undergo mean-reversion, and so your 20% stock (with current vol. at 60%)may well have a lower premium than your 40% stock (with current vol. at 60%). But, it can work in the opposite direction too: maybe that 20% stock has an upcoming earnings releaseand the other stock doesn't. Then, the former may well have a higher premium.