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mathdude2018
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Joined: January 10th, 2018, 4:35 pm

Correlation among contracts in forwards curve

March 6th, 2018, 10:18 pm

I am trying to understand what is the best way to find correlation between the contracts composing the forward curve. Is it just lining up the front month, front +1 month contracts and so on, calculating their price returns and finding the correlation of returns or is there more to it?
 
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bearish
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Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Correlation among contracts in forwards curve

March 6th, 2018, 11:59 pm

That sounds like a reasonable starting point. Beyond that it depends a bit on which market you are looking at. It may make sense to do a principal component analysis of the correlation (or covariance) matrix and look at the factor structure. If it is a storable commodity there will presumably be a  dominant factor driven by the spot price and the remaining patterns in correlation arising from moves in interest rates, storage cost, and market technicals. If its something essentially non-storable like electricity, interest rates or VIX, then the story gets more complicated.