Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
User avatar
ikicker
Topic Author
Posts: 30
Joined: June 8th, 2011, 12:19 am

Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 25th, 2021, 2:59 pm

Thoughts?

Once the pandemic is no longer depressing the economy, Yellen said, the administration would propose repealing parts of the tax act “that benefitted the highest-income Americans and large companies.”
The Strategas research team thinks the current corporate tax rate of 21% could be lifted to 28%, halfway back to the 35% that prevailed prior to the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017... But, they add, it doesn’t seem that a future corporate tax hike has been discounted by the market, based on the relative price action of stocks of more highly taxed companies.

Very high-income investors could also face increased levies on dividends and capital gains, the Strategas team points out. Under the Biden plan, capital gains and dividends could be taxed at a total federal rate of 43.4% for those earning more than $1 million a year. The capital-gains rate hasn’t been over 30% since 1978. Cap-gains rate increases also result in fewer investors cashing in realized gains, they add.

The Biden proposal also would lift the effective tax rate on dividends to 60% from 40% (after taking into account the double taxation of payouts at the corporate and personal levels). Since the 2003 tax cut, which effectively lowered the effective federal rate to 45% from 60%, a 25-year decline in the total of companies paying dividends has reversed.
Source: https://www-barrons-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/stocks-ignore-tax-hikes-that-are-likely-after-pandemic-ends-51611333358
----
Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 23029
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 26th, 2021, 8:20 pm

Dividend tax of 60% seems steep. 
 
User avatar
ikicker
Topic Author
Posts: 30
Joined: June 8th, 2011, 12:19 am

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 26th, 2021, 10:34 pm

Dividend tax of 60% seems steep. 
the 60% is the total amount taxed on the earnings of the corporation and includes the double taxation... it's not just a dividend tax...

(1-(1-corporate_rate)(1-dividend_rate) = aggregate rate
----
Undergraduate: accounting, finance, information systems; Graduate: MBA/finance; Graduate certificates: data science, applied statistics, advanced valuation; PhD candidate - data science

Blog: Www.ThinkerTinkerSolutions.com
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 23029
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

November 20th, 2024, 1:37 pm

Image
 
User avatar
Paul
Posts: 7055
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

November 21st, 2024, 10:56 am

Stop the Press: Cuch misses the point!!!

I was at the protests. I estimated about 15,000 people there. Clarkson went down very well. Lots of banners for Reform. Everyone very polite. And no litter left behind, unlike at leftie protests!
 
User avatar
Cuchulainn
Posts: 23029
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

November 21st, 2024, 11:24 am

Everyone very polite.

I see; lots of gentleman farmers.
 
User avatar
katastrofa
Posts: 7949
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 8th, 2025, 9:06 am

Dividend tax of 60% seems steep. 
the 60% is the total amount taxed on the earnings of the corporation and includes the double taxation... it's not just a dividend tax...

(1-(1-corporate_rate)(1-dividend_rate) = aggregate rate
Thats still high.
Made me wonder how the double-taxation alleviation of my minuscule dividends from the UK investments work in Norway. Highly complex topic (-:
 
User avatar
Marsden
Posts: 1340
Joined: August 20th, 2001, 5:42 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 8th, 2025, 3:25 pm

In America, the Trumpublican Party has employed a two-step process to rationalize cutting taxes for the wealthy: first, complain about the "double taxation" of dividends to rationalize cutting the tax rates on them (you can currently receive around $47,000 in dividend income -- which you'd generally need at least a million dollars of equity holdings to receive -- without paying any federal income tax on them in America); next, complain that tax rates on corporate profits are much higher in America than in other first world countries (never mind that in other first world countries the low corporate tax rates are paired with high individual tax rates on dividend income) in order to rationalize lowering the corporate income tax rate, which is currently 21% and comparable to the rates in most of Europe and the rest of the first world.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 8th, 2025, 6:09 pm

I don’t disagree with the spirit of your post, but the tax rate for (qualified) dividends is actually either 0, 15%, or 20%, depending on your total taxable income, where $47,000 is the threshold to hit the 15% bracket (which is wide enough to capture most Americans with meaningful dividend income). The 20% rate kicks in at an income level slightly north of $500k, and my guess is that it applies to the largest $ amount of dividend income the aggregate.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 8th, 2025, 6:12 pm

Oh, and then there is of course another layer of state (and in the case of NYC, local) tax adding as much as 10% on top of the federal tax rate.
 
User avatar
Marsden
Posts: 1340
Joined: August 20th, 2001, 5:42 pm
Location: Maryland

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 8th, 2025, 6:34 pm

... whereas for the losers who actually have wage income, single individuals get a $14,600 standard deduction (although recall that where corporations get to deduct just about every expense they have, living and working expenses are rarely deductible for actual people), then get taxed at rates beginning at 10%, quickly rising to 24%, and then topping out at 37%. And of course FICA taxes of 15.3% for the first $176,100 of wage income and 2.9% beyond that in addition.

The only way you can conclude that the American tax rates on stock-derived income is in line with either other American taxes or international taxes is by -- as the Trumpublicans insist -- looking at half of the equation in comparison to other American taxes and then looking at the other half in comparison to international taxes.

Buying the American government is easily the best investment in the world, but it has a very high entry cost.
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 10th, 2025, 10:43 pm

I’m mostly trying to stay out of Norwegian politics, but as you probably know, there is a very serious issue going on with the wealth tax. It may or may not be a bad idea to begin with, but the way it has been executed does seem overly hostile to successful business owners, who have decamped to Switzerland in droves. Or gaggles?
 
User avatar
bearish
Posts: 5906
Joined: February 3rd, 2011, 2:19 pm

Re: Do you see the tail risk in tax reform repeal?

January 11th, 2025, 1:40 am

Umm - Norway is actually quite productive, not to mention innovative. Compared to other resource rich countries they’re doing OK. But, as the report card saying goes, could do better.