February 5th, 2024, 2:39 am
Suppose x(0) = 0 and x is observed at t=1, 2, ..., N, and x(t) = x(t-1) + z(t), where z(t) is N(0,1) (normally distributed). What is the probability that x(0) is either a minimum or maximum of x(0:N), meaning that either all N later observations are positive or all N observations are negative? For N=2 the probability is 3/4, since given one step z(1), the only way x(0) is not the minimum or maximum of x(0), x(1), and x(2) is that z(2) is opposite in sign to the first step and larger in magnitude. Each of these probabilities equal 1/2, and they are independent, and 1/2^2 = 1/4. I simulated the general problem and got this result and results for N > 2, but I wonder if this question has been studied and if there is an analytical solution.