Futures Spread - Contract
There is a Futures Spread, Where the Margin reflects a Leverage of 3 to 1 ,
The Margin for the contract is just $ 210.
I ‘am Buying “ 1 Futures Contract September, Selling 1 Futures Contract December ”
It is a Interest Rate Futures Contract,
There is a Spread of 0.25 % , between the two contracts,
The Bought Leg of the September Futures Contract = 1.00 %
The Sold Leg of the December Futures Contract = 1.25 %
Spread = 0.25 % ,
The Contract has it where a 0.25 % change = $ 625 Dollars in Gain/Loss , in other words a 25 basis point change = $ 625 Dollars in Gain/Loss
Target Profit
With this expected target of a + 25 basis point gain, I want to target a Total of $ 30,000 Profit. In order to do to do this , i would need to to have 48 Contracts ($ 30,000 / 625 = 48 Contracts. This would be 48 Contracts on the Buy Side Leg, and 48 Contracts on the Sell Side Leg. ) .
Spread Narrowing - Profit Gain
I’am expecting the December Futures Contract will decrease to the same level as the September Futures Contract, so both will decrease to the level of 0.75 % . This would give me 0.25 % Gain on the December Contract ( Sept Contract -.50 , December Contract +.75 , Total = -0.50 + 0.75 = 0.25 ) .In other words a + 25 Basis Point Gain is realized , which would be a + $ 625 Profit Gain. With 48 Contracts, This in Total Profit would equal $ 30,000 ($ 625 x 48 Contracts).
Spread Widening - Loss
Now to the flipside extreme scenario where i have a Loss, lets say the Interest Rate for the December Contract increased more than September Contract, the December Contract increased to 1.75 %, and the September Contract increased to 1.25 %, this gives a spread of 0.50 % . This would result in a -0.25 % loss in the Futures Spread, ( Sept Contract + 0.25 Gain, December Contract -0.50 Loss, Total = 0.25 - .50 = - 0.25 ). In other words, a - 25 Basis Point Loss is realized, which would be a - $ 625 Loss. With 48 Contracts, this would be a Total Loss of - $ 30,000 ( - $ 625 x 48 ) .
Risk to Reward Ratio
Right now by doing this spread, it seems like there is a Risk to Reward Ratio of 1 to 1, a potential Risk of Loss of - $ 30,000 and a Potential Gain of + $ 30,000 .
I want to have a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 3 in this Futures Spread. I want the potential Loss to be limited to $ 10,000 and the Potential Gain to be the same as it is now at $ 30,000.
I want to implement this 1 to 3 Risk to Reward ratio with this Futures Spread without using Stop Loss Order. How can I structure this Futures Spread to have this 1 to 3 Risk to Reward Ratio ?