Data and useful resources for navigating tariffs, taxes, economic impact assessments, and other elements of the geopolitical zoo.

First up: the USTR on Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

including this quantly gem:

"Consider an environment in which the U.S. levies a tariff of rate τ_i on country i and ∆τ_i reflects the change in the tariff rate. Let ε<0 represent the elasticity of imports with respect to import prices, let φ>0 represent the passthrough from tariffs to import prices, let m_i>0 represent total imports from country i, and let x_i>0 represent total exports. Then the decrease in imports due to a change in tariffs equals ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0. Assuming that offsetting exchange rate and general equilibrium effects are small enough to be ignored, the reciprocal tariff that results in a bilateral trade balance of zero satisfies:"


"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4."

Could be an interesting exercise if someone wanted to work with import and export data from other countries.

Would it reflect a kind of put-call parity-like equilibrium?

Just kidding. Enjoy!

Also in the news today:

These are the hardest-hit US trading partners under Trump’s tariffs - CNN April 3

Includes a detailed table of Countries or blocs subject to tariff rates higher than the 10% base rate.

Unfortunately, trying to cut and paste a portion of the table as an example does not work nicely, but it's not paywalled.

and on the legal side - pulling this over from Trump - the second first 100 days (before it gets buried in that very active thread)

Here is a compilation from the New York Times - worth a read on a variety of issues (though you do have to get a temp account to see the whole article):

Tracking the Lawsuits Against Trump’s Agenda 
By Alex Lemonides, Seamus Hughes, Mattathias Schwartz and Lazaro Gamio Updated March 25, 2025 at 2:16 p.m. E.T. 

"The legal clashes over President Trump’s blizzard of executive actions are intensifying, with new lawsuits and fresh rulings emerging day and night.
As of March 25, at least 53 of those rulings have at least temporarily paused some of the administration’s initiatives. Mr. Trump has responded angrily, and even called for the impeachment of a federal judge who ruled against his administration on deportation flights, earning a rare public rebuke from Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr."

Jump to a section
The dozens of lawsuits fall into these categories.

Civil servant firings
Budget freezes
Birthright citizenship
DOGE
Immigration
Trans rights
Jan. 6 Capitol riot
Congestion pricing
Climate policy
C.D.C. data
Federal access restrictions
The Federal Election Commission

and finally this (same):

A few more links with the same or similar information - (and not requiring log in).

Tracking the lawsuits against Donald Trump’s executive actions - AP April 2
Basic information, easy to scan

Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions - Just Security Updated April 2
Includes overviews, case summaries, updates and links to legal filings; an exhaustive resource for anyone interested

Collection: Just Security’s Coverage of Trump Administration Executive Actions - last updated March 28
Commentaries with many explainers, legal citations

For those less familiar with the US/DC Beltway media, I'd also recommend Roll Call.

Enjoy your evenings, thou tariffed and counter-tariffing trading partners. : )

That is quite handy - thank you!

Data and useful resources for navigating tariffs, taxes, economic impact assessments, and other elements of the geopolitical zoo.

First up: the USTR on Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

...


"To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4."

Some discussions of this today. As a weekend project, I've gotten the links to the References in that USTR statement and here they are:

References

Boehm, Christoph E., Andrei A. Levchenko, and Nitya Panalai-Nayar (2023), “The long and short of (run) of trade elasticities, American Economic Review, 113(4), 861-905.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20210225 
 
Broda, Christian and David E. Weinstein (2006). “Globalization and the gains from variety,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(2), 541-585.
https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/121/2/541/1884019?redirectedFrom=fulltext#no-access-message (paywalled)
but it is also here:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... _id=596603
 
Pujolas, Pau and Jack Rossbach (2024). “Trade deficits with trade wars.” SSRN.
Actual title is: Trade Wars with Trade Deficits
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=5008591
 
Simonovska, Ina and Michael E. Waugh (2014). “The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence,” Journal of International Economics, 92(1), 34-50. 
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199613000986
also at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=1767871
 
Soderberry, Anson (2018). “Trade elasticities, heterogeneity, and optimal tariffs,” Journal of International Economics, 114, 44-62.
Author’s last name is Soderbery. (So, nice job on the Refs, USTR - 2 mistakes and there were only 5 to get right.)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9618300825
 
Finally, some commentary here, among numerous other places:

Economists take issue with Trump’s tariff formula, arguing rate is inflated - CNBC April 5

Highlights:
"...Trump’s formula for calculating tariff rates for nations around the world is based on an elasticity rate lower than it should be in practice, according to senior fellows Kevin Corinth and Stan Veuger with the American Enterprise Institute. The formula assumes an elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs of about 0.25, but the economists say that that number should be closer to 1.0 (0.945).

“Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices as they should have done,” the scholars wrote. The tariffs that Trump imposed range from 10% to 50% on nations around the world. If the assumptions surrounding elasticity are adjusted in Trump’s formula, no country’s tariff would exceed 14%, and most would be at exactly 10%, the baseline established by the Trump administration.
...
Another report out this week from the Cato Institute also found a flaw in the formula that Trump used to justify the tariffs. The report found that the trade-weighted average tariff rates that Trump used to justify his reciprocal tariffs are higher than they are in practice.
For instance, the Cato Institute said the 2023 trade-weighted average tariff rate from China was 3%, but the Trump administration said it was 67%."

And lest you think, "Well, these critics must just be libtard Democratic dissidents," not this time.
The AEI is considered center-right and Cato is libertarian. Not liberal. LIBERTARIAN. : )

American Enterprise Institute

Cato Institute

More coverage of these and many other issues on those sites.

Bon weekend!*

* Being French, a phrase to be taxed at 20%.

I like the Larry Summers quote from a couple of days ago: “This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or RFK thought is to vaccine science.” So no wonder the garbage (the MAGA base) is eating it all up. It’s what they believe in!

Maybe some anecdotes are nice to offset to too much of the dismal science.

Today, I went out to the mall, Apple, Lowe's, Home Depot, and my favorite car dealership. The mood was very sombre in all locations in a region that was not completely hostile to Trump previously.

The Apple store was busy right after it opened. I picked up a new untariffed MacBook Air (ordered last night). No price hikes or shortages yet - estimates are that existing inventory may be gone in 3-4 months.

Lowe's was also crowded - people are stocking up on all kinds of stuff and also distracting themselves with winter clean-up, gardening, and home projects.

As for the car dealership...drum roll... you'd have to be watching the online prices carefully, but I think they have hiked already.  Also, many of the 2025 models are either in transit or being built (you can see the status of particular vehicles online) and so, not being on the lot, those prices weren't set in stone anyway.

Chatting with the dealer and the finance guys, they anticipate quite a bit of activity now. The exact vehicle I was thinking about is already gone, though I'm just toying with the idea. I have two great cars of the same type already (I hoarded an extra one during Covid, when it wasn't clear when cars would get back into production; you may recall there was a chip manufacturing issue then and many new vehicles were stranded on production lines in Mexico and elsewhere for months).

Anyway, tomorrow I am going further north to see how it feels out there in more rural reddish-blue land.

I feel like we could have learned some useful things during Covid that would be helpful now, at least related to supply chain shocks, personal economics, and investing.

A search on SSRN for "dead cat bounce" aka "bear market rally" yields.... 1 paper!

Dead Cat Bounce - Demand Reversal Following the Bursting of a Bubble - Kolja Johannsen University of Warwick
Written May 27, 2016

Behavioral finance perspective. Nice set of references.

Abstract

This is the first paper to theoretically analyze the temporary reversal of the downward trend in financial assets, also known as dead cat bounce or bear market rally. We show that preferences according to cumulative prospect theory lead an investor to take excessive risk and unprofitable positions in order to recover an initial loss in a declining market. The loss driven behavior results in premature re-entering into the market. We show that heterogeneous investors enter at the same time despite differences in the reference point, wealth and initial loss. The resulting shift in aggregate demand can explain the sudden but temporary reversal common in declining financial markets.

**

I'm developing my existing library on crashes, panics, and market anomalies, so recommendations are welcome.

Skillful heckling is appreciated too, but regrettably, I'm too busy to reply. ; )

As part of a different research project, here is a paper that was presented at the Brookings Papers on Economics Activity Conference in March.

Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank 
Anil K Kashyap, Jeremy C. Stein, Jonathan L. Wallen, and Joshua Younger 
March 26, 2025

"Thinly capitalized hedge funds’ growing role in the enormous and rapidly expanding market for U.S. Treasury securities poses a clear and present danger to financial stability that warrants a new approach from the Federal Reserve during times of extreme market stress, suggests a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on March 28.

In their paper, “Treasury Market Dysfunction and the Role of the Central Bank,” the authors examine changes in the Treasury market since March 2020, when the Federal Reserve purchased more than $4 trillion of Treasuries and government-backed mortgage securities to calm turmoil in those markets triggered by the COVID pandemic.
...

The authors recommend that the Federal Reserve, in periods of extreme stress, be prepared to take over the hedge funds’ positions. As before, the Fed could stand ready to purchase Treasury securities but it would also, as the hedge funds do, take offsetting short positions in derivatives...this new approach would be strictly focused on market functioning, preserving the distinction with monetary policy actions to support economic growth and employment, they write. Because the purchases would be hedged, they would not—as the Fed’s COVID-era purchases did—put upward pressure on growth and inflation by pushing down long-term interest rates."

More on the link and the paper is downloadable at no charge. A free lunch for all, in keeping with their proposal. Bon appétit!

True.

Tariff Tracker - The Conference Board
Up to Date, with commentary, and a good table of the top 18 trade partners. 
EU 20% (April 9) down to 10% (April 10), then paused for 90 days (April 10)

Data Web - US Trade and Tariff Data
It could be a nice data set except for the lag - only includes data through February 2025 (oh well)

Harmonized Tariff Schedule - US ITC
Running a day behind in updating their pdfs at the moment (information from April 9 is accessible, but not April 10)

Of particular interest from The Conference Board commentary:

"The European Union officials on April 9 approved tariffs on US goods that will take effect April 15 from 10-25% on $24 billion worth of US goods, including tobacco, motorcycles, poultry, steel and aluminum. American whiskey is not included on list, due to threats of US tariffs on EU alcoholic beverages of 200%."

I suppose European consumers will decide what they want to do with American whiskey. (As if there aren't any regional substitutions!)

Haha - SNL since 1975!

We need some Treasury data resources too.

Equities are one thing, but I guess bonds could not take the medicine.