I agree, this has been creeping up for a long time.Yes, not a great year/decade to be a “knowledge worker”
Serving the Quantitative Finance Community
Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonbelldata/
Author of Machine Learning: Hands on for Developers and Technical Professionals (Wiley).
Contributor: Machine Learning in the City (Wiley).
Author of Machine Learning: Hands on for Developers and Technical Professionals (Wiley).
Contributor: Machine Learning in the City (Wiley).
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
In the pantheon of digital technologies that have reshaped human behavior, artificial intelligence
stands out as perhaps the most insidious threat to our cognitive independence. This
essay examines how AI functions as a digital drug, creating dependencies that systematically
erode fundamental human capacities for thinking, creating, and reasoning. We analyze the
multifaceted impacts across domains including education, programming, scientific research,
and social media, demonstrating how AI-induced cognitive atrophy represents an unprecedented
challenge to human intellectual autonomy. We conclude with recommendations for
digital temperance to preserve cognitive independence while benefiting from AI’s legitimate
advantages.
stands out as perhaps the most insidious threat to our cognitive independence. This
essay examines how AI functions as a digital drug, creating dependencies that systematically
erode fundamental human capacities for thinking, creating, and reasoning. We analyze the
multifaceted impacts across domains including education, programming, scientific research,
and social media, demonstrating how AI-induced cognitive atrophy represents an unprecedented
challenge to human intellectual autonomy. We conclude with recommendations for
digital temperance to preserve cognitive independence while benefiting from AI’s legitimate
advantages.
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- AIHalp.pdf
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
Sounds largely plausible, as well as almost certainly AI-generated.
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
Do you know Ig** Halp****?Sounds largely plausible, as well as almost certainly AI-generated.
What are the tell-tale signals (in your opinion) that it is AI-generated?
Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
I do in fact know Ig. Not really well, but we’ve had lunch together. As for the document, it’s a little too well structured, and with the same sentence patterns repeated frequently. The use of colons and em-dashes also looks a tad off.
And, for whatever it’s worth, Claude agrees with me.
And, for whatever it’s worth, Claude agrees with me.
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
I see.
Why would a human use ChatGPT to write an article bad mouthing AI?
My co-author on probation (relieved of duties) used ChapGPT on the SOLID topic. Most was copied from Wiki. The examples are inane.
I feel physically sick.
Why would a human use ChatGPT to write an article bad mouthing AI?
My co-author on probation (relieved of duties) used ChapGPT on the SOLID topic. Most was copied from Wiki. The examples are inane.
I feel physically sick.
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
Random thoughts
1. Is prompt engineering clutching at straws? A cop-out for robust requirements analysis?
2. NLP is fraught with pot-holes. It won't work in general. Wittgenstein would have a lot to say.
3.Will ChatGPT ever be a requirements analyst? Probably not, because it is a name dropper and it has no STM?
Can you train ChatGPT to become a requirements analyst in fixed income, @bearish?
1. Is prompt engineering clutching at straws? A cop-out for robust requirements analysis?
2. NLP is fraught with pot-holes. It won't work in general. Wittgenstein would have a lot to say.
3.Will ChatGPT ever be a requirements analyst? Probably not, because it is a name dropper and it has no STM?
Can you train ChatGPT to become a requirements analyst in fixed income, @bearish?
Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
I’m just a dabbler and dilettante in this space, but when I just asked Claude what information I would need to build a risk management system for a portfolio and benchmark made up of corporate and government bonds, it gave a pretty comprehensive and reasonable answer. I come from a world where systems were typically built without a “requirement analyst” (not saying this is a good thing!), and this is probably as good a starting point as any I’ve seen produced by a risk manager or portfolio manager, let alone a tech guy. This is of course pretty standard stuff, but still not trivial. So, I’m leaning towards “yes”.
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
What is the most intellectually stimulating activity in AI? (*)
BTW what happened to ML?
(*) prompt engineering excluded, of course.
BTW what happened to ML?
(*) prompt engineering excluded, of course.
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
AI or poetic license?
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
Really?
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐝’𝐬 “𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲” 𝐅𝐢𝐱 𝐂𝐚𝐧’𝐭 𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐋𝐋𝐌𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐆𝐈
For over a decade, Google DeepMind has stood atop the AI prestige pyramid flush with data, compute, funding, and 1000+ PhDs. If anyone could crack AGI, conventional wisdom said, it would be them. Yet after all that, they still have nothing resembling real intelligence. Not one leader has articulated a credible path to a system that can learn continuously, adapt autonomously, or revise its own model in real time, rippling changes across beliefs and behaviors. These aren’t “nice-to-haves”, they’re the baseline for general intelligence.
DeepMind hasn’t delivered them, or even convincingly aimed at them.
"Consistency" is their latest answer to get to AGI. A term that sounds scientific but masks brittleness, a machine that dazzles one moment and collapses the next. CEO Sundar Pichai calls it “jagged intelligence", and Demis agrees as if it’s a natural stepping stone to AGI rather than a symptom of LLMs fundamental architectural limitations. After a decade of perfect conditions, all they offer is proof that their creation can’t think straight from one prompt to the next, a polished confession of failure, as clueless as the rest.
This isn’t to dismiss Hassabis himself, his narrow-AI achievements are extraordinary, his Nobel prize deserved, his approach refreshingly free of fear-mongering and unnecessary hype. I respect the man. But respect is not belief. DeepMind is trapped in a dead-end LLM paradigm that will never deliver real intelligence. They are polishing a static mind, hoping gloss will hide the cracks and prevent the collapse, it won’t.
With GPT-5 already collapsing under its own hype, the market chorus grows louder: “If not OpenAI, then it's DeepMind.” But scale is not inevitability. DeepMind’s record shows that even with every advantage, they’re no closer to solving cognition. If they truly understood AGI’s demands, they’d be talking about architectures for continuous learning, autonomous adaptation, and self-revision. Without those, what you have is an illusion of intelligence that shatters under the slightest pressure.
AGI won’t come from today’s tech giants because they’re trapped in the past, believing more data, more GPUs, and more energy can brute-force a breakthrough that only a new paradigm can deliver.
Build Cognitive AI → Unlock Real Intelligence.
The real breakthrough will come from a team building cognition from first principles, and it'll be a paradigm shift.
When that happens, these tech giants will look less like pioneers and more like BlackBerry watching the iPhone, or Yahoo watching Google.
Giants in every era were brought down not by lack of resources, but by clinging to the wrong paradigm, blinded by arrogance, ignorance, and the glow of past success until the future passed them by.
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐝’𝐬 “𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲” 𝐅𝐢𝐱 𝐂𝐚𝐧’𝐭 𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐋𝐋𝐌𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐀𝐆𝐈
For over a decade, Google DeepMind has stood atop the AI prestige pyramid flush with data, compute, funding, and 1000+ PhDs. If anyone could crack AGI, conventional wisdom said, it would be them. Yet after all that, they still have nothing resembling real intelligence. Not one leader has articulated a credible path to a system that can learn continuously, adapt autonomously, or revise its own model in real time, rippling changes across beliefs and behaviors. These aren’t “nice-to-haves”, they’re the baseline for general intelligence.
DeepMind hasn’t delivered them, or even convincingly aimed at them.
"Consistency" is their latest answer to get to AGI. A term that sounds scientific but masks brittleness, a machine that dazzles one moment and collapses the next. CEO Sundar Pichai calls it “jagged intelligence", and Demis agrees as if it’s a natural stepping stone to AGI rather than a symptom of LLMs fundamental architectural limitations. After a decade of perfect conditions, all they offer is proof that their creation can’t think straight from one prompt to the next, a polished confession of failure, as clueless as the rest.
This isn’t to dismiss Hassabis himself, his narrow-AI achievements are extraordinary, his Nobel prize deserved, his approach refreshingly free of fear-mongering and unnecessary hype. I respect the man. But respect is not belief. DeepMind is trapped in a dead-end LLM paradigm that will never deliver real intelligence. They are polishing a static mind, hoping gloss will hide the cracks and prevent the collapse, it won’t.
With GPT-5 already collapsing under its own hype, the market chorus grows louder: “If not OpenAI, then it's DeepMind.” But scale is not inevitability. DeepMind’s record shows that even with every advantage, they’re no closer to solving cognition. If they truly understood AGI’s demands, they’d be talking about architectures for continuous learning, autonomous adaptation, and self-revision. Without those, what you have is an illusion of intelligence that shatters under the slightest pressure.
AGI won’t come from today’s tech giants because they’re trapped in the past, believing more data, more GPUs, and more energy can brute-force a breakthrough that only a new paradigm can deliver.
Build Cognitive AI → Unlock Real Intelligence.
The real breakthrough will come from a team building cognition from first principles, and it'll be a paradigm shift.
When that happens, these tech giants will look less like pioneers and more like BlackBerry watching the iPhone, or Yahoo watching Google.
Giants in every era were brought down not by lack of resources, but by clinging to the wrong paradigm, blinded by arrogance, ignorance, and the glow of past success until the future passed them by.
Re: Real Options and Investment under Uncertainty: the AI Connection
"AGI won’t come from today’s tech giants because they’re trapped in the past, believing more data, more GPUs, and more energy can brute-force a breakthrough that only a new paradigm can deliver."
It's been a great story from Altman et al, but the well of nonsense has finally started to dry up.
Alman's "let's build a god and then ask it how to make money" was the rallying cry of the techbro idiot.
It's been a great story from Altman et al, but the well of nonsense has finally started to dry up.
Alman's "let's build a god and then ask it how to make money" was the rallying cry of the techbro idiot.
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonbelldata/
Author of Machine Learning: Hands on for Developers and Technical Professionals (Wiley).
Contributor: Machine Learning in the City (Wiley).
Author of Machine Learning: Hands on for Developers and Technical Professionals (Wiley).
Contributor: Machine Learning in the City (Wiley).