May 5th, 2007, 5:25 am
I am new to CPPI options and I have a problem pricing one. If youcould give me a hint about my problem I would be most grateful.Product 1) (not the real one, just to see if I am getting the thingsright). Suppose the CPPI is not guaranteed. An amount N is taken by the issuer, andinvested in an underlying (A) + risk free invesment (B). The leveragefactor is monthly reviewed and possibly modified depending on theevolution of A and according to some predefined and well-knownrules. Part of the benefit is given in coupons, what remains is givenat the end. Price spreads are taken into account.If we forget fees, it seems to me that the price isexactly N, even if A is tradable only once every month. The CPPIissuer is bearing no risk, just handling our money and giving back the(good or bad) results. Although it is pointless, if we would insist onpricing this through MC, A should be modeled using risk-neutralmeasure in order to get the price N, not real-rate.Product 2) (The REAL one). Like the previous, but now N isguaranteed at the end. So, we could writeProduct 2 = Product 1 + Option,where Option pays (BF - V)^+ in case the value v of the portfoliois less than the bond floor needed to honor the guaranteed amount.I understand that now liquidity is an issue, because continous deltahedging is not possible anymore. The document CPPI.DOC by GiacomoGalli linked in the Wikipedia refers to this kind of situations, andpoints out that in this reason:"The discrete nature also means that the relevant growth rate isnot the risk-free rate, but rather the real rate of return..."Now some doubts arise:* Beyond which frequency of trade for A (dayly, weekly, monthly) is itreasonable to use the real rate instead of the risk-free?. Or somehowa weighted average would be better? The price obtained, is still theamount needed to manage a hedging-portfolio? Or is it just the price that,probabilistically, would be fair if we could "play the game" manytimes, like in a statistical hedging?* If I would decide to price using MC, one way to do it would be toprice the whole Product 2 using the real rate. But another, to pricejust the Option using real rate, and Product 1 normally (because itis not sensible to liquidity), with risk-free rate. The results willbe very different. I prefer the second choice, but I don't find iteasy to justify.* Last and probably most disturbing: in general the value of an optionmay result increased using real probabilities instead ofneutral-risk probabilities, but it can also be decreased (if theoption is more valueble in case of poor performance of theunderlying). Surely I can't say that, "now that I can't hedgecontinuosly, the option is cheaper".Will you please shed some light on my poor understanding, or providereferences where I can learn these specific topics?Thank you, and I apologize for my broken English.
Last edited by
zeycus on May 4th, 2007, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.