September 13th, 2006, 6:48 pm
Conditioned on B_t1 > 0, the probability of staying above zero on [t1, t2] is 2 \Phi( B_t1/(Sqrt[t2-t1]) ) - 1. Integrating over B_t1 ~ N(0, t_1) gives (1/Pi) Arctan(Sqrt(t1/t2-t1). I guess that's probably what you did, but you might have missed the "sqrt" changing variables.
Last edited by
Normal on September 12th, 2006, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.