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Paul
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Posts: 7047
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 5:58 pm

Light relief, Guess the Twat:

“ THE CV PANDEMIC WAS SIMULATED OCT 2019 BY MEGA-RICH CONTROL FREAKS BILL GATES, GEORGE SOROS +CRONIES.
NOW IT'S FOR REAL.
THE AIM IS A WORLD POPULATION CULL ("PEOPLE cause #CO2 problem") by THEIR mass VACCINATION PLAN CONTAINING POISON.

*REFUSE*CV*VACCINE*”

No googling! Clue: it’s a relative of man who could have been PM.
 
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Paul
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Posts: 7047
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 8:03 pm

I wash my hands to the tune of “It’s the end of E.U. as we know it (and I feel fine).”
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 9:28 pm

Image
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7931
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 9:58 pm

You have outdated information. There's 7310 deaths now.
 
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Paul
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Posts: 7047
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 10:13 pm

3,700 crew and passengers on Diamond Princess. 700 caught the virus. Say 20%. 1% of those died. Scale to the world that’s an extra 15 million deaths. (Although some would have died of other things.) (Did you know that iPhone calculator can’t cope with 7 billion? You live and learn!)
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 16th, 2020, 11:36 pm

You have outdated information. There's 7310 deaths now.
duh.

Long way off your prediction of 600K.
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7931
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 12:17 am

It was a naive model based on age and sex-adjusted risk score and current world population structure. It actually stopped at a higher number, but I don't want to scare you ;-)
 
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Alan
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Joined: December 19th, 2001, 4:01 am
Location: California
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 1:53 am

At first I thought the WHO had the latest stats. But, now I think this situation map from Johns Hopkins updates the most often. Does anyone know a more timely map?
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7931
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 1:58 am

This one beats WHO by almost 1000: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
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Alan
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 2:17 am

Thanks!
 
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Paul
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Posts: 7047
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 2:35 am

You have outdated information. There's 7310 deaths now.
duh.

Long way off your prediction of 600K.
Based on the cruise ship numbers it could be 150,000 in the UK.
 
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Paul
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Posts: 7047
Joined: July 20th, 2001, 3:28 pm

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 2:40 am

At first I thought the WHO had the latest stats. But, now I think this situation map from Johns Hopkins updates the most often. Does anyone know a more timely map?
No one looks at WHO numbers! They are more concerned with not offending viruses by misgendering them. I believe they were about to rebrand, before the virus struck, as WHX.
 
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Collector
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Joined: August 21st, 2001, 12:37 pm
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Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 11:20 am

one of two expected side effects already observed from putting people tight together weeks and months, the other effect baby boom is lagging, but is coming also (what is the mortgage rate for house extensions now???)

Divorce rate spikes across China after 'couples spend too much time together during coronavirus home quarantine',

"One city has put a daily limit to allow no more than 10 couples to divorce a day"   (at some point the market is hitting rock bottom and one can get a good deal ?)

when second C-19 wave comes it will be massive upturn for online divorce service companies. A C-19 free divorce!
 
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katastrofa
Posts: 7931
Joined: August 16th, 2007, 5:36 am
Location: Event Horizon

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 11:44 am

Simple scatterplots:
pic3.png
Are we going to San Marino via Italy?

BTW, many people claim that they had symptoms of Covid-19 last winter, around Dec-Jan.
I though the same. I had a heavy flu in that period, different than usual. I ended up troubled - my immune system got knocked out of the orbit. It was the first time in many years I had to lay down in bed ill for several days. I even went to see a GP.
 
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Cuchulainn
Posts: 22933
Joined: July 16th, 2004, 7:38 am

Re: How should we deal with the coronavirus pandemic?

March 17th, 2020, 12:28 pm

The biggest dangers of self-isolation

1. Divorce
2. Pregnancy
3. 10 kgs weight gain
4. Alcoholism
5. 1 + 2 + 3 + 4

A Russian friend told me that. Dark humour :-)