>the first indication, that individual investors are holding more Gold than before the financial crisiswell, this is beyond any doubt. of course individuals own more gold now than before the crisis. gold is however far from being the most popular asset class for individuals now. property bubble, for example, especially here in asia, is blowing up again. people tend to have short memory and jump on growing asset bubbles over and over again. QuoteOriginally posted by: Bonsai Gold is a fear trade, and in my view, fear is a bad advisor.not as bad as greed though...

QuoteOriginally posted by: BonsaiGold production cost is maximum 500$ per ounce, the spot price is now at 1120. This spread is unsustainable.The spread is telling me, that Gold is a crowded trade, and it could bust this year. Every small investor jumped outof the stock market and now owns Gold. The crowd is probably wrong here. Of course, the bull market could resumelater on, but there is a chance for a shake out, like in the NASDAQ in 1998.The biggest GLD Holder is a John Paulson hedge fund, but at a GS conference in Lucerne, Switzerland, I learned that mostof the exposure is to hedge other trades, so he is not as long GLD as it seems. He holds almost 10 % of all outstandingGLD trackers. I think George Soros will get out of his Gold trade until the end of February. This headline is exactly what he want's. Mediasscreaming that Soros is big time buyer of Gold.Another guy, named Charles Nenner, who calls himself a semi-quant - semi technical analyst, a very smart investor, is tellinghis clients to get out of Gold in February. He made this call in December, and his price target is 1240$. He also said, thathe bought the recent sell-off for a short term trade. You can listen to his latest comments on the link below. But he expects asell-off this year. Since Mr. Nenner is a prominent advisor to GS and also the Hedge Fund Industry, I believe that Mr. Nennertalks also to Mr. Sorros.For quite some time now, GLD is trading in sync with SPY. My question is, if the GLD should start to sell-off, will the SPY follow?http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ch ... ccode=Both Soros and Paulson seem to have huge GLD holdings:http://www.whalewisdom.com/filer/view/p ... ent-llcThe question is why would they make it public through 13Fs? They can exposure to gold much more discreetely without buying an ETF an be required to disclose their holdings. This smells of a pump-and-dump.

I agree, especially in the US, individual investors rushed also into Bond Funds. The graph in the 1st. link below shows the dramatic shift in asset allocation - bonds vs. equity funds. Bonds definitely seem to be a crowded trade, and also, another sign of fear.Flow of FundsAnd have a look at the Gold ETF Chart. The flow of funds into Gold ETF's is just amazing.Gold ETFFor Asian real estate, I believe the big difference between Asian and Western Countries is the debt level of households. If asian households start o borrow like in the US or Europe,it would be a warning sign, but I think we are far from being there. Thats why real estatemarkets rebound so sharply in Asia.

In this blog I wrote on the 18th. of march, I believe, that one couldgo long GDX and short GLD. I think this trade was worth + 5 %, buttoday, I would close the position. There is an interesting aspect, comingup to the drilling mining and exploration industry after BP and RIG blewthe ?Deepwater Horizon? up in the air and then in the ocean.When Trackstar wrote the text below, I did not discount the risk of naturaldisasters in mining, exploration or drilling stocks:Peru's gold rush sparks fears of ecological disaster - BBC December 20It is only from the air that you can see the full extent of the destruction.Today, BP lost a USD38 Bio. in market cap. P/E contraction, or undervalued? Exxon Valdez was sued for a USD 5 Bio. and paid USD 500 Mio. at the end. RIG & BP lost together the tenfold of what Exxon Valdez case made in court.GS says 50 % of clients want to short the stock, the other half want to buy itGood point.... but they know the numbers. Either the problems of DeepwaterHorizon are 10 times bigger than the Exxon Valdez case, or BP is undervaluedjust a little bit.If the commodities industry is overvalued, because investors do not see therisk of natural disasters in mining, drilling and exploring, this is an interestingcase going forward. President Obama had high hopes for job growth in the drilling sector, but RIG doesn't discount this anymore.At this point, I would close the long position in GDX and take the profitto finance the short in GLD. I still think after the Euro bubble, we get the Gold bubble. My stop loss for the short trade is USD 1250, I would doublethe short @ 1210 & below 1160. Text Text

Gold price hits new record high - BBC Sept 14"The price of gold hit a record high on Tuesday, with analysts giving a number of reasons for its rise. Both the price of the actual metal and the price for buying it at a future date rose more than 2% to $1,274.75 an ounce. It was the biggest one-day gain for the commodity in four months. One of the factors spurring investors is gold's traditional role as a so-called "safe-haven" investment at times of economic uncertainty.On the physical market, demand for both bullion and jewellery has risen ahead of the seasonal Indian wedding period and the Hindu religious festivals that begin in September.Another driver is more technical - gold is priced in dollars, and any fall in the dollar makes it cheaper to buyers using other currencies. The dollar has fallen across a range of currencies, driven down by a range of factors. Its most remarked upon slide has been against the Japanese yen. It is trading at a 15-year low against that currency.The price of gold has risen 16% so far this year. Analysts said there were no significant new reasons for this latest record."It's going up for all the same reasons. People are fearful still," ANZ head of sales, Peter Hillyard, told the Reuters news agency. "Little things come into the market, little factors that awaken people's interest in gold."The World Gold Council's last report on the gold market predicted that continuing strong demand from jewellery buyers in the two fast-developing markets of India and China, would help keep the price high."and another view: PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Hits Record As Econ Worries Rise Again - WSJ Sept 14 all pasted in here"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Investors propelled gold to record highs Tuesday as they continued buying the precious metal as a way to offset potential losses from a faltering global economic recovery and dollar. The most actively traded gold contract, for December delivery, rose $24.60, or 2%, to a record settlement of $1,271.70 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The intraday high was $1,276.50. Nearby but thinly traded September gold also settled at a record, $1,269.70, up $24.60, or 2%. Gold--seen as a relatively safe place to park cash during times of economic uncertainty--took a bump higher after news of a sharp drop in a closely watched survey of expectations for Germany, Europe's largest economy. "Safe-haven demand is continuing as there are increasing doubts about the robustness of the recent economic recovery and concerns that markets may be subject to further turmoil," said Mark O'Byrne, director of Dublin-based bullion dealer GoldCore. The dollar--which sank to a 15-year low against the yen, dipped below parity versus the Swiss franc and fell to a series of one-month lows against the euro--also helped dollar-denominated gold, by making it less expensive for buyers using other currencies, boosting demand. As the yellow metal moved higher, more and more traders began piling on. "Do the fundamentals justify it? Probably not," said Craig Ross, vice president of Chicago-based brokerage ApexFutures.com. "It's going up more because people read about it going up last week. You can't stand in front of this freight train." Gold is used to diversify investment portfolios because it isn't as closely linked to economic cycles as more-industrial materials like copper and oil, or equities that act as proxy for the economic outlook. Just last week, gold posted a record settlement on fresh worries over Europe's banking sector. It then fell back as those concerns eased, but investors remained reluctant to sell the metal too aggressively. Traders keep bidding the metal higher as interest rates remain at historically low levels, reducing the opportunity costs of holding gold, which pays no interest. Investors have been reluctant to move money back into real estate, and although equities are doing better, they remain wary because questions about the ability of some European nations to manage their debt loads persist. "People aren't sure where to put their money," Ross said. The Federal Reserve will probably keep its short-term interest rate close to zero at least through 2012 because of the protracted weakness in the U.S. economy, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Fed also could announce a new program of asset purchases to support a weak economy as early as November, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at the bank, said Tuesday. In addition to the low interest rates, keeping easy monetary policy in place is generally considered supportive for gold as some see it weakening the dollar and potentially fostering inflation over the long term. However, such concerns have been floating around the market since the Fed engaged its response to the 2008 financial crisis, and prices overall haven't crept up. "Market discussion ... of quantitative easing is supportive of gold," said Jim Steel, senior vice president and metals analyst with HSBC in New York. Gold also has a backdrop of support from seasonal factors and on news that Russian production of the metal is on the decline, said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of the Linn Group in Chicago. Russia produced 98.08 metric tons of gold in the first seven months of the year, or 3.15 million troy ounces, 3.6% less than in the corresponding period last year, according to figures released Tuesday by the gold producers' union. Gold mining in the period produced 83.892 tons, down 5.93% on the year. September also often is a stronger month for gold as market participants return from summer holidays and festival- and wedding-related buying ramps up in India, the world's largest gold-jewelry market. This year, however, that buying could be dented if gold's rally continues. A move above $1,300 could push world jewelry demand in the fourth quarter down as much as one-fifth on the year, London-based metals consultancy GFMS Ltd. said Tuesday. Gold demand in India, the world's largest consumer, has picked up due to festivals, but purchases are still below expectation as prices continue to rise, industry executives said Tuesday. Other precious metals traded in New York also rose Tuesday. Comex December silver gained 1.4% to settle at $20.432, after extending its highest point since July 2008 to $20.550. Nymex October platinum rose 2.9% and hit its highest point since August 4. December palladium on the exchange added 4.5% and touched its strongest price since April."

the gold bull market is over when the "we buy gold" signs outside all the jewelry stores change to "we sell gold" signs. until then you are well advised to be long of gold. it is highly unusual that the (stupid) public is told to SELL stuff rather than to BUY stuff. There is no bubble until the public starts buying and is being actively encouraged to do so.

Gold Hits Record, 2-Year Yield at All-Time Low on Fed Statement http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid ... Ii2I&pos=2

#Uncertainity... QE2...US Gold Hedge againts Uncertainity...

$1300....

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid ... DVOc&pos=1

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/01/news/co ... ex.htmguys, the public has yet to go gaga over BUYING rather than SELLING gold, but this article could be the beginning of the end.remember, the public is always at the losing end of a trend.

Gold remains in a long bull market indeed but it has to have setbacks. Diehard gold bugs claim gold go up in inflation or deflation, but the truth is gold is just another asset. Little noticed to many, gold is a currency but not a payment currency that settles debt. Therefore when USD rises (if you think USD is doomed, you'd be surprised to know that even Weimar's currency had periodic 50% rallies against then USD), gold will sink. Wild speculation has been made in this tiny sector based on a false assumption that when top comes the public would be lining up around the corner to buy gold, as seen in the 70s. Not -- never. The investment dynamics have changed a lot. The public no longer have to buy gold from gold dealers. They buy online, buy thru hedge funds or gold ETFS. They are deep into gold.

Now SIZE QE matters .. Mid term Election...China trade bill... G20 MeetingPrinting Money ...currency wars... investor needs hedge againts uncertanity GOLD

good news for Gold Bugs:Gold set to extend post-Fed gains; peak in 2011: Reuter's poll - Nov 5"Gold's record-breaking climb should continue for at least six months, corresponding to the planned duration of the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday and Friday.Two out of three respondents see gold prices topping out between $1,400 and $1,500 an ounce on an interim basis, with most analysts surveyed expecting prices to peak during the first or second quarter of next year.Thirteen of the 20 analysts, traders and fund managers polled by Reuters said the price of bullion will remain in an uptrend well into the first half of 2011, after the Fed on Wednesday unleashed a program to buy $600 billion of government bonds in a new round of quantitative easing (QE).The Fed's QE package has reinforced the argument for holding gold, as it pushes the dollar firmly onto a downward path and raises the risk of inflation."QE devaluates the currency, so gold...and almost all commodities will be beneficiaries as people start to switch from financial assets to commodities, something they feel more tangible as the money printing continues," said Standard & Poor's Equities and Metals analyst Leo Larkin.The forecast duration of the gold rally roughly coincides with the Fed's proposed time frame, and analysts believe the Fed will have no choice but to unleash additional rounds of stimulus to prevent the economy slipping back into recession."The underpinning here is that the Fed is stating very openly that it is more worried about deflation than it is about inflation," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services., adding that gold should benefit from this round of QE for 6 months.The U.S. central bank said this week it would buy about $75 billion in longer-term Treasury bonds per month through the end of June 2011, and it also left the door open to adjusting its scheme down the road. [ID:nN03120542]Spot gold surged as much as 6 percent since the Fed's announcement on Wednesday, reaching an all-time high of $1,397.80 an ounce on Friday."more on the link...

So don't you think there is a kind of gold bubble growing ? Due to the financial crisis there was and is a fligh to quality through this safe haven. However is it really safe ? We already saw gold crash in the past and I won't be surprised if we see another one in a close future.found this interesting articleIs Gold a hedge or a safe have ?Moreover an interesting stuff would be to correct the gold price with the inflation as done in this graph.Just wondering what would be the trigger for the crash (when there is an exponential high you can expect an abrupt low ).