Serving the Quantitative Finance Community

 
User avatar
Man
Posts: 0
Joined: June 27th, 2002, 4:39 pm

.

December 19th, 2002, 11:10 pm

QuoteLook, u implied in your previous post that Bush does what's beneficial economically for US oil lobby. Correct, but to be more specific, Bush is using the hype and talk of war, which pushes up oil prices (do you deny that?) as a side benefit. If you can make money with the war drumming, why not? Most people are too involved with the "drama" of pre-war to even notice.QuoteNow you are listing who benefits from decrease of the oil price. That's a completely different question, which is not answered by you fully, by the way. I did not state anyone benefits from the decrease of oil. But, obviously it would be good for the supply chain, and in turn that would generally bring down prices, so benefit the end user. The relationship is between XOM, BP, RD, CVX, TOT and Iraqi oil (and actually other countries oil). This relationship is the side-benefit, of the Iraq war. Russia and China, know that these guys want dibs, and want in return, a few concessions to deal with their own problems. QuoteFull answer is that the economic benefit goes to every net oil importer of which US is the largest. This economic value is going to be transferred from OPEC, Russia, Iraq, and all the rest of the net oil exporters. I fully agree with you, but don't forget the economic benefits to XOM, BP, TOT, RD, CVX. While generally lower oil prices will hurt them, they will gain entry into Iraq. Guess which country is next? Iran. XOM, BP, TOT, RD, CVX want Iraqi, and Iranian oil development contracts and a % of the flow.QuoteThe only relevant point though is that US oil lobby does not benefit from it. Not so fast. The U.S. oil lobby, would love to get themselves into Iraq and Iran. The benefit of pro-western governments, signing contracts with them there, would surly be a benefit and if the price of oil falls and hurts XOM, and BP so be it, it hurts our competitors, Russia, China (which happen to be biggest dissenters). And, just because China and Russia are standing around with their interests in mind, does not mean the support the course of action...it just means they are going to gain a little side-benefit, in the game of side-benefiting. QuoteDoes Bush do what's good for US oil lobby or for US economy in general?Bush does what is good for Bush & Co. QuoteI hear from time to time statements like you made about Bush administration and I am just trying to understand if there is some actual thought and conviction behind them. Your answer so far sounds pretty unconvincing to me. I also hear statements such as these, for saying things against Bush. Let me make it clear, I am not a Bush-basher. I happen to like Bush a lot, and can speak highly, in many regards, of him. But, don't take it as Bush.....if Cheney was president, you would hear the same tune from me and these players.*************************************I admit, my idea may be highly speculative. But it will be interesting to see, what China and Russia get from the war, and how ZAP, XOM, BP, and TOT, perform after the war.
 
User avatar
MobPsycho
Topic Author
Posts: 0
Joined: March 20th, 2002, 2:53 pm

.

February 13th, 2003, 6:13 pm

Last edited by MobPsycho on August 19th, 2003, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
MobPsycho
Topic Author
Posts: 0
Joined: March 20th, 2002, 2:53 pm

.

February 25th, 2003, 2:20 pm

Last edited by MobPsycho on August 19th, 2003, 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.