haha i can see why your nick is "farmer" now! so the conclusion is that technical analysis will boost GDP and let corn farmers live the american dream.

QuoteOriginally posted by: tibbarsorry for misreading who started the thread.Bear in mind that for every paper in favour of TA there will be several more against it. It would be interesting to start a poll, who believes: a) Strong EMH, b) Semi-Strong, c) Weak, d) EMH is bullcrap.It's bullshit. Ask Buffett -and he has the proof to the tune of $40billion.

QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeQuoteOriginally posted by: tibbarBear in mind that for every paper in favour of TA there will be several more against it. It would be interesting to start a poll, who believes: a) Strong EMH, b) Semi-Strong, c) Weak, d) EMH is bullcrap.It's bullshit. Ask Buffett -and he has the proof to the tune of $40billion.That is not proof, although it is good evidence maybe..You can take 1,000,000 random people off the street and flip a coin, heads the double their money, tails they bust.Even after several years you'll have a significant amount of people who flipped heads every time and everyone will say 'they are fucking geniuses' unless they understand randomness and chance and realize they were only lucky.

"2 emh believers are walking down Wall and see a $50 bill on the sidewalk... none of them pick it up, because in their minds if it were really a $50 bill someone would've picked it up already".

"A TA finds a $50 bill lying on the sidewalk. He devotes the rest of his life searching for $50 billson the sidewalk, but finds no more."

A physicist/bayesian practitioner finds a $50 on the sidewalk, and updates his beliefs that he just found a $50 bill, and that somehow affects his probability of everything else happening after that, but nothing can be known from only finding a $50 bill, you need more information.QuoteOriginally posted by: Alan"A TA finds a $50 bill lying on the sidewalk. He devotes the rest of his life searching for $50 billson the sidewalk, but finds no more."

Fair enough, but he should also update his beliefs by incorporating the last 50 years of the well-regarded"Journal for the Study of Sidewalk Money"

He should also update his beliefs by incorporating everything that has occured at any point in the past at every point All these things we do, even as reasoning/thinking beings is an approximation to that ultimate goal QuoteOriginally posted by: AlanFair enough, but he should also update his beliefs by incorporating the last 50 years of the well-regarded"Journal for the Study of Sidewalk Money"

QuoteOriginally posted by: crowlogicQuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeQuoteOriginally posted by: tibbarBear in mind that for every paper in favour of TA there will be several more against it. It would be interesting to start a poll, who believes: a) Strong EMH, b) Semi-Strong, c) Weak, d) EMH is bullcrap.It's bullshit. Ask Buffett -and he has the proof to the tune of $40billion.That is not proof, although it is good evidence maybe..You can take 1,000,000 random people off the street and flip a coin, heads the double their money, tails they bust.Even after several years you'll have a significant amount of people who flipped heads every time and everyone will say 'they are fucking geniuses' unless they understand randomness and chance and realize they were only lucky.Are you saying that Buffett is simply lucky? Go back and study economics 101.

I'm saying that trying to emulate Buffet isn't going to get you shit.QuoteOriginally posted by: TraderJoeQuoteOriginally posted by: crowlogicAre you saying that Buffett is simply lucky? Go back and study economics 101.

I used to trade using TA before moving into mid office.It's quite useful for timing entry points.It does not tell you whether you've selected the right stock though.You need fundamentals in that.I once simulated stock prices though GBM and they still exhibit technical patterns.

QuoteOriginally posted by: jomniII once simulated stock prices though GBM and they still exhibit technical patterns.And your conclusion from this is ...?

I've noticed this too...The only thing I can think, is that you cannot predict the exact path of brownian motion but you can predict the density of the path of brownian motion, e.g., the particle cant shoot off wildly all of the sudden, it is governed by the conditional pdf up to 'now'.So perhaps TA is some tool that constructs a crude approximation to a moving probability distribution.QuoteOriginally posted by: jomniI used to trade using TA before moving into mid office.I once simulated stock prices though GBM and they still exhibit technical patterns.

i'm willing to wager that somewhere in the world at this very moment there is $50 bill lying around ready to be picked up... is there anyone willing to wager against that? and since when did i advocate TA... i don't recall ever saying i'm an advocate of TA... though i do think it is alot more usefull than emh.

QuoteOriginally posted by: crowlogicI'm saying that trying to emulate Buffet isn't going to get you shit.I disagree entirely.