Yes to your first question. I am not a gold bug actually and am leery of perceptions of value.Would be quite satisfied to get out pretty soon if I had bought some where under 900 or so.On triggers - one of the most direct ones would be enough investors selling to send price down by (take an educated guess) 2 or 300 points.Look for signs of panic attacks. Maybe also unexpected news, especially from sovereigns that are holding.Just quick thoughts in early morning...

From ten years now, the gold index increases almost exponentially.saw this article this morningDid the gold bubble pop?If one country begins to sell, then I think it would be massive selling and a crash.When was the last big crash in gold and what was the trigger ? (history always repeat in my humble opinion)

Jim Cramer is bullish on gold: it mean that despite all a deflation is coming?Is it time to get out of gold / go heavily into short positions?After all, this guy was bullish on Bear Stearns in 2008...

Gold Dives Off record - Reuters Nov 9"Gold's rise to a fourth consecutive record high unraveled late on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and an increase in silver futures margins sparked a wave of profit-taking in precious metals. Gold futures hit a record in early trading on safe-haven buying fueled in part by concerns about Irish and Portuguese debt. But gold reversed course in the U.S. afternoon. It managed to settle higher, but in electronic trade after the settlement, gold fell back below $1,400, down more than 1 percent from Monday's close.Precious metals had made substantial gains since the Federal Reserve announced more easing last week. Some analysts said it was vulnerable to a sell-off, some analysts said.Silver reversed from a 30-year high in record high trading volume, falling in tandem with oil and grains. Silver exchange-traded fund trading volumes reached 10 times the average. Shares of the iShares Silver Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of silver, fell 3.6 percent on massive volume as more than 150 million shares changed hands, nearly 10 times the average daily volume over the last 50 days....Some traders said a rise in margins to $6,500 a contract from $5,000 had aided the sell-off in a market that was due for a correction after outperforming gold in the past few months. "The sell-off started because the market had gone too far too fast," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader with Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "The margin change added insult to injury," he added, but said it was not the primary factor driving the after-hours sell-off....U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $6.90, or almost 0.5 percent, prior to the day's reversal.Spot gold scaled a record at $1,424.02 an ounce, but then fell by 1.7 percent to $1,386 in late New York trade."more on the link***So it's getting a little skittery out there.

have a look at commodities trading yesterday. There are huge blow off tops in some Goldmining stocks. Incredible Volumes yesterday in Nova Gold. I am hearing that some HF's are starting to short goldstocks and gold.But it would be wise to chose a shorter timeframe with a higher strike. The problem is that with a money printer at the FED, we could see a move in commodity stocks and gold like the one NDX did from 1998 to 2000.Today it is 1998 for goldstocks compared with the nasdaq. After a short correction, the bubble will start. An other good indicator for a short term top in commodities is the trading yesterday in corn and wheat. After the crop report, tradersjumped to the long side, and got smashed.But I do not expect that this will be the final top with a moneyprinter in the FED. Remember, he can print money, but he will not know where the money flows until we see the bubbles.My price target for Gold in 2011 is USD 2500Good luck wit tradingbonsai

"One myth that's out there is that what we're doing is printing money. We're not printing money. The amount of currency in circulation is not changing,? Mr Bernanke said."http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05e175b0-00d4 ... z17NvyGdTG

QuoteOriginally posted by: Collector"One myth that's out there is that what we're doing is printing money. We're not printing money. The amount of currency in circulation is not changing,? Mr Bernanke said."http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05e175b0-00d4 ... NvyGdTGLOL "the Ben Bernank" is clueless as usual.

QuoteOriginally posted by: gardener3QuoteOriginally posted by: BonsaiGold production cost is maximum 500$ per ounce, the spot price is now at 1120. This spread is unsustainable.The spread is telling me, that Gold is a crowded trade, and it could bust this year. Every small investor jumped outof the stock market and now owns Gold. The crowd is probably wrong here. Of course, the bull market could resumelater on, but there is a chance for a shake out, like in the NASDAQ in 1998.The biggest GLD Holder is a John Paulson hedge fund, but at a GS conference in Lucerne, Switzerland, I learned that mostof the exposure is to hedge other trades, so he is not as long GLD as it seems. He holds almost 10 % of all outstandingGLD trackers. I think George Soros will get out of his Gold trade until the end of February. This headline is exactly what he want's. Mediasscreaming that Soros is big time buyer of Gold.Another guy, named Charles Nenner, who calls himself a semi-quant - semi technical analyst, a very smart investor, is tellinghis clients to get out of Gold in February. He made this call in December, and his price target is 1240$. He also said, thathe bought the recent sell-off for a short term trade. You can listen to his latest comments on the link below. But he expects asell-off this year. Since Mr. Nenner is a prominent advisor to GS and also the Hedge Fund Industry, I believe that Mr. Nennertalks also to Mr. Sorros.For quite some time now, GLD is trading in sync with SPY. My question is, if the GLD should start to sell-off, will the SPY follow?http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/ch ... ccode=Both Soros and Paulson seem to have huge GLD holdings:http://www.whalewisdom.com/filer/view/p ... ent-llcThe question is why would they make it public through 13Fs? They can exposure to gold much more discreetely without buying an ETF an be required to disclose their holdings. This smells of a pump-and-dump.Looks like soros started dumping his shares, paulson still holding on.

who is expecting Gold $1600 in 2011 ?

QuoteOriginally posted by: Owaiswho is expecting Gold $1600 in 2011 ?Peter Schiff

Gold, Metals Extend Losses as Economic Outlook Cuts Demand - Bloomberg Business Week Jan 5All pasted in here."Gold fell to the lowest price in almost three weeks on speculation that an economic recovery will curb demand for the metal as a haven. Silver tumbled. The dollar strengthened against six major counterparts after a report showed U.S. companies added almost three times more jobs in December than predicted. Gold dropped 3.1 percent yesterday, the most in six months, on an improving outlook for growth."People are feeling warm and fuzzy on the outlook for the economy," said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. "All the bullish data is weighing on gold and the metals, and boosting the dollar. You're seeing outflows in risk-aversion assets like gold into higher-risk assets like equities."Gold futures for February delivery fell $6.40, or 0.5 percent, to $1,372.40 an ounce at 11:19 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $1,364, the lowest since Dec. 16. This week, reports showed orders placed with factories unexpectedly rose in November and manufacturing in the U.S. expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in December. In 2010, gold rallied 30 percent, the 10th straight annual gain, outperforming stocks and bonds amid escalating U.S. and European debt. The metal touched a record $1,432.50 last month."Testing" Bull Market"Gold's bull market is going to be tested," said Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Suffolk, Virginia- based Gartman Letter. "It may continue to do so for a few more days and perhaps a few more weeks."Silver futures for March delivery lost 27.3 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $29.235 an ounce. The metal fell 5.2 percent yesterday after rallying 84 percent in 2010.Palladium futures for March delivery declined $4.30, or 0.6 percent, to $764.75 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price surged 96 percent last year.Platinum futures for April delivery dropped $24.40, or 1.4 percent, to $1,723 an ounce."**A little pull back, or maybe 2010 was as good as gold gets for now.

Gold , probably in history has played different role. In current situation it subjectively can be considered as a collateral to primary currencies. Hence, while the hope that fx system will work it make sense to think that gold will grow if money will be pump in any form. If money will not printed then it probably will not significantly gain or loss. If fx will be reconstructed then gold will probably visibly drop.Besides, equity markets are somewhat underlying to fx and therefore visible changes there would be effective. And also real economy factors are effective for finance changes.Subjectively, it looks like for close future gold will not have stable trend up or down but for a about year period gold rather will turn down because European troubles would stimulate fx and other correspondent changes.

]Gold Trading below 55 day MA current price 1358.5...Its Friday lets See what Mr Ben Bernanke say .. GOLD Gonna like or what lets see TODAY

Gold Must Top $2,000 to Be Viewed as Bubble, Deutsche Bank Says

*CHINA RAISES RESERVE RATIO BY 50 BASIS POINTS FROM JAN. 20Gold will get smashed like potatoes on this. The long term trend is up, but it is around 1250