"fetchez le mathematicien"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... asing-risk
Gowers, a world-leading mathematician and winner of the Fields Medal – sometimes described as the Nobel prize of maths – was described by Cummings as “one of the smartest people on the planet” during evidence to two parliamentary committees.
read all about it here, esp. the two disclaimers in the first sentence.
BTW Gowers calls it the "r value", nuff said.
Serving the Quantitative Finance Community
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
- Attachments
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- questions-about-coronavirus-policy.pdf
- (90.43 KiB) Downloaded 241 times
Last edited by Cuchulainn on May 29th, 2021, 12:52 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
I'm pleased that it's in alphabetical order.I disagree with Drs Cuch and Goebbels on this.“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
1 more thing; are you suggesting that the requirement of Propaganda being truthful be relaxed?I'm pleased that it's in alphabetical order.I disagree with Drs Cuch and Goebbels on this.“always maintain that propaganda has to be truthful. That doesn’t mean he didn’t lie, but it would be a pretty poor propagandist who publicly proclaimed that he was going to lie.”
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
I told MPs how, literally as I was sketching the whiteboard above in the PM’s study on 13 March in preparation for the meeting I planned the next day with the PM, the deputy Cabinet Secretary walked in and told us that DHSC clearly had no serious plan and was imploding. When asked last week by MPs re my testimony, Hancock said that the disproof of what I’d said was ‘we had a plan, we published it on 3 March’ and this plan discussed lockdowns. He is referring to the laughable contain-delay-mitigate ‘plan’ published on 3 March. This document was based on the logic that we would not do suppression. Obviously this embarrassingly awful document, which will be remembered as a case study in failure for decades to come, in no sense set out what we actually did, as everybody can see.
timeline->
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-response
timeline->
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-response
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
Living with Modeling Uncertainty
In the rapidly evolving climate of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are major uncertainties around disease dynamics and policy outcomes, as well as ample opportunity for models to “get it wrong.” We should expect that the evidence base and epidemiological context will continue to shift, sometimes making earlier modeled results obsolete. Modeling is likely to remain prominent as new policy questions arise, yet the uncritical acceptance of modeling results will not serve public health or the field of modeling. Careful evaluation and comparison of results—and benchmarking against empirical findings where possible—will be important for revealing assumptions and potential biases, as well as spurring progressive improvement in modeling approaches.
Mom and apple pie.
In the rapidly evolving climate of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are major uncertainties around disease dynamics and policy outcomes, as well as ample opportunity for models to “get it wrong.” We should expect that the evidence base and epidemiological context will continue to shift, sometimes making earlier modeled results obsolete. Modeling is likely to remain prominent as new policy questions arise, yet the uncritical acceptance of modeling results will not serve public health or the field of modeling. Careful evaluation and comparison of results—and benchmarking against empirical findings where possible—will be important for revealing assumptions and potential biases, as well as spurring progressive improvement in modeling approaches.
Mom and apple pie.
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
Covid: UK faces a difficult summer, says leading scientist
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57877033
Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57877033
Prof Ferguson, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show it was "almost certain" that the UK would reach 100,000 cases and 1,000 hospital admissions per day as almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England and school holidays begin.
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Re: Models for Covid-19
It could have been worse. It could have been 50%.
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- katastrofa
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Re: Models for Covid-19
It could have been worse in absolute numbers if not for the vaccine - that's what I believe, at least in the short term.
U.S. COVID Deaths Are Rising Again. Experts Call It A 'Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated'
Waiting for Tump to change his politics on vaccines as he's losing supporters
U.S. COVID Deaths Are Rising Again. Experts Call It A 'Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated'
Waiting for Tump to change his politics on vaccines as he's losing supporters
Re: Models for Covid-19
Make it easier to get vaccinated in secret, so people don't need to lose face.
Re: Models for Covid-19
Make it easier to get vaccinated in secret, so people don't need to lose face.
I think that is a legit strategy.
Re: Models for Covid-19
Well, congrats to the UK for their high vaccination coverage. Obviously, as that coverage approaches 100%, then close to 100% of new covid hospitalizations will be from vaccinated people. Duh!Priceless.
"Sir Patrick Vallance ..."
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
Daily Telegraph rebuked over Toby Young's Covid column
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/ ... vid-column
An article by Toby Young for the Daily Telegraph was “significantly misleading” when it said that catching a cold could protect people from coronavirus and claimed that London was approaching herd immunity, the press regulator has ruled.
In a decision published on Thursday, the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) complaints committee ordered the Telegraph to publish a correction over the column, which was appeared in July last year under the headline: “When we have herd immunity Boris will face a reckoning on this pointless and damaging lockdown.”
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/ ... vid-column
An article by Toby Young for the Daily Telegraph was “significantly misleading” when it said that catching a cold could protect people from coronavirus and claimed that London was approaching herd immunity, the press regulator has ruled.
In a decision published on Thursday, the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) complaints committee ordered the Telegraph to publish a correction over the column, which was appeared in July last year under the headline: “When we have herd immunity Boris will face a reckoning on this pointless and damaging lockdown.”
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- Cuchulainn
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Re: Models for Covid-19
It's now called "Computational Epidemiology"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computati ... idemiology
Articles
https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5157310
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computati ... idemiology
Articles
https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5157310