"Is the Net Weighted Vega Exposure on page 82 = to modified Vega. "yes that is the idea to modify vega (but not sure what your definition is), I wrote about this in 1992 and published in 1993. (free download bottom of my article page (
http://www.espenhaug.com/articles.html ), however much more interesting would be to run same study on implied vols, (no discrete sampling error and also much more relevant in relation to vega and the option formula approach great option traders actually use)I would have written this paper in different way today, but yes idea is basically vols with different maturity moves not parallel, short term vols more volatile than long term. When looking at historical you have problem with sampling error (if not access to very good clean intraday database). Also implied vol much more relevant for vega. Remember implied vol not simply is future expected standard deviation but also related to supply demand of options (the vol smile, etc etc.).Short term implied vol much more volatile than long term for several reasons. (me and some friends have done sizable study on implied vols, will see if we get time to clean up the paper and publish it)A. Implied vol is often partly related to expected realized vol: and shocks in underlying asset are typically short term. If market crash 30% in a day, it it extremely unlikely it will crash (or also jump up) with around 30% every day for very long period of time...B. Short dated options are much cheaper in terms of money, but risk is just as big as for long dated options if not larger (higher gamma etc). All players have limited capital. Lets say you have 10 million to invest in option premium. If you lift market maker for 10m in premium for 1 year options atm, yes he get short options but risk is much lower than if you lift him for 10m in premium 1 weeks. if u lift him for 10m in premium 1 week, he likely need to quickly run in market cover big part of position. This is also related to A. Because of A risk is higher in short dated. AND because delta hedging fails to remove most risk, yes any sensible market maker that is lifted for lots of premium (and thereby huge notional) in short dated will run around in market to cover big part with other options (with similar maturity and strike). Naturally also risky in long dated (in few cases larger risk here) but I am talking relative to invested capital etc. could write a book about this....but don't have time, there are more important things in life than options; women, the meaning of life, global cooling, spiking food prices and hedging your wealth for FIAT ballooning inflation....