December 12th, 2008, 2:27 am
I think the problem in the world, everywhere, is that there are too many damn people. There are too many smart people arbitraging any new development and too many dumb people who need to have their hands held. We are all familiar with mathematics here; the world is now colonized and exponential growth is no longer our friend. It's just really a case of resources, and worldwide demand for just about everything is getting so high that it might as well be a zero-sum game. I am from the US. The US traditionally has been lucky to have bountiful resources. But if your motto is "all are created equal" then when your population doubles and triples while your technical innovation languishes, per-capita living standard plummets. This is happening now.Let's not forget scarcity. It used to be that just having a college degree was a golden ticket. Well, could it have been that was true in large part because relatively few people had one? It was the cutting-edge, elite thing to do at the time. I don't have an MBA, but I have a financial math MSc and a CFA, and in this job environment the value of those particular credentials seems to fall somewhere between Quilted Northern and - well, choose your favorite form of excrement. When everyone is super, then no one is.A lot of ambitious people I think (myself included) made critical career decisions based on outliers - e.g. Einstein, Soros/Rogers, Simons, Griffin, etc. - instead of on something smarter like the median. Or the actual day-to-day of some of the positions that the vast majority in their chosen field end up holding. That kind of decision is a really highly-levered risk in today's global economy. Capitalism rewards #1 and kicks #2 out on his ass. Far far too many people entering finance is a huge trend in the US. When I entered undergrad over 10 years ago, fully 1/3 of business majors were finance majors and about 1/3 of all majors were in business. I can only imagine those ratios held steady or even increased over the last decade, and it's insane. Everyone is chasing the big payoff. Except it's not there anymore unless you are the next outlier.Meanwhile we have corruption on a massive scale. Forget the governor of IL, read Jim Simons recent testimony about the ratings agencies. For several years I have watched in a amazement that they maintained so much credibility, gaffe after gaffe. They get paid by the issuers of debt, not the buyers. (!) We definitely need an IQ influx and a corruption exodus in government, because..Of all the stupid people. Stupid people represent a hell of a lot of demand. And often they demand really stupid things, like subprime mortgage-backed securities. Or mortgages they could never afford. T4Alpha pointed out the dilemma regardless of what degree you hold, the marketers and IBankers of the world are simply not going to leave that money on the table unless it's somehow illegal to take it. So do we need more regulation or less? I think a dichotomy has arisen at least in the US where half of us need more and half of us less. But laws are generally one-size-fits-all. And I doubt many politicians want to regulate themselves several tax brackets downward. We almost need to start over but that would take a concerted effort by a lot of key people in key positions and I'm not sure enough of them have the balls. Or the intellectual wherewithal, because a lot of them probably majored in finance.Overpopulation is the biggest problem. I think #2 is focus by managements large and small on the short-term instead of on maintaining "going concern" status. (e.g. profiting from currency disparity by outsourcing) Cut costs to a point, but eventually you really do need to grow revenue in a meaningful way, i.e. you need to have good ideas and vision. But I don't want to make this wall of text any bigger. I tend to have a negative slant so I hope a lot of the great minds on this board will prove all this crap wrong