Assume I have a firm-value credit model in which the default time [$]\tau^*[$] is subject to the evolution of the assets [$]X[$]. Also assume that the default time is defined as [$]{\tau ^*} = \inf \left\{ {t \in {\mathbb{R}^ + }:X(t) \le h} \right\}[$], where [$]h[$] is the default barrier. This is a standard setup.
If [$]X[$] is a continuous process such as GBM, then [$]\tau^*[$] is predictable (I can create an increasing sequence of stopping times that announce the default). This is easy.
In the reduced-form models the default time is a total surprise and the default time is totally inaccessible (intuitively, knowing the default intensity still tells us nothing about how close to default the company is; there is no announcing sequence and we have no idea when the company defaults even when we know the intensity).
But what if I have a firm-value model where the assets [$]X[$] follow some jump diffusion (with the jump component based e.g. on Poisson). Is it possible to classify the default time [$]\tau^*[$] somehow? Here, [$]\tau^*[$] seems to me to be somewhere between 'predictable' and 'totally inaccessible'. I can partially see the company to get closer to the default but if the assets jump, then the default is still a surprise.
