I actually only check the weather forecast on iPhone too how wrong it is... In the past I’ve postponed trips because of an 80% rain probability, only to get sunshine - or I’ve been caught in pouring rain when it said just 10%.
A couple of days ago, I looked at the screen and it hit me like Thor’s hammer: they’re doing something idiotic.
Trying to preserve my sanity, I checked forecasts for other days to rule out the idea that they were treating the rain events as mutually exclusive. They are not, or aat least not regularly. Not independent either. No clear correlation to reverse-engineer. But still, just too rainy.
Then it clicked: what they report as the “probability of rain” is just the chance that any amount of rain will fall at any time during the day. Hence those cases where 80% means an angel pissing at 5 AM, and 10% means a midday rainstorm.
I think it’s nonsense to present forecasts this way for us mere mortals.
So it's not a brainteaser, but I just wonder how others see it.
Personally, I’d find a maximum hourly probability more intuitive. Or something derived from hourly PoPs assuming, say, 50% correlation.
Or is there a better way?